Randy Moss @ MindSay 
THOUGHTS ON FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUES
Ok, so I'm a football fan. You and I both know this. And baseball, and college sports, throw in my Lakers, Golf and Tiger, Tennis and Maria, I even got caught up in horse racing this year. I've never joined a fantasy league though. Never wanted too. I got signed up by my roommates in college senior year, but had the automatic draft and never really played in it. Maybe because it was free. I always kind of picutured fantasy fans as geeks and nerds who could never play the sport competitively themselves, the same types of guys who play computer games all day and wear glasses. Like that nerdy guy on ESPN (John Clayton I think is his name) who ex-QB Sean Salisbury loves to pick on. Until this year. And not because I started wearing glasses or stopped working out. Au contraire. A couple of guys I work with got me interested and the thought of winning the pot was too enticing to pass up. $40 buy in for the season X 8 people playing and the winner grosses $400. 'Just win baby'.
So the season is 1/3 over and I'm in 3rd place at 3-2. Not bad for a rookie. The top four make the playoffs, which is really week 15 and week 16 of the regular season. What I've figured out already is that most of the people who play fantasy football, not just in my league, but the cottage industry of writers, media and gurus who are the so-called "experts" may know a lot about football, but they know little about winning and next to nothing about arbitrage.
Arbitrage??
Picture this for a second; your typical sophisticated investor sitting at his computer who is smart enough to realize that the selling price for an item, say gasoline here in SoCal is not the same selling price as gasoline is in say, Texas (where lower fuel standards make it cheaper), or in say Western Europe (where higher fuel standards make it more expensive) even though the gallon of gasoline is the same exact gallon in one place as it is in another. That is what is known as arbitrage. The fancy term for buying and selling goods in one market at a different price than in another. Smart traders buy low in one market and sell high in another and pocket the difference.
What the hell does that have to do with fantasy football you say?
Simple.
Take a player, any player, at your required positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K and Defense). Conventional wisdom, and this is what my guys told me on draft day, was to pick players according to fantasy ranking, more or less. Only a fool would pick a rookie QB instead of Peyton Manning for example, because Peyton is a better player who over the course of the season will have better stats, thus earn more fantasy points for you. True, but the number of players out there who truly can be counted on to perform over the course of the season is a lot smaller than the experts realize. Guys get hurt (see Sean Alexander). Guys underperform (see Ben Roethlesberger). Guys overperform (see Rex Grossman). Any sports fan knows this and especially in a contact sport like football, injuries are a guarantee. The trick is to have a strong enough bench. I doubt though that most people will have the same roster at the end of the season that they did on draft day. What does that tell you?
That picking up guys along the way and letting guys go, via trades and waivers is the best way to not just improve your team, but to stay competitive. Why then have only four out of eight of us really been active in terms of updating our rosters. I've been the most active thus far. And I'm not just talking about shuffling your roster around so that your players who have their bye weeks sit on the bench for a week, I mean acquire and release players.
Good players.
Like the hedge fund trader who knows that gasoline sells higher in market A, but less in market B, my strategy has been to focus less on raw stats, which overvalue yards and touchdowns but undervalue wins and pick up and cut loose guys for the same week to take advantage of matchups in that players favor, even if he's not necessarily a guy you would initially pick on draft day. Give me a decent RB on a decent team (not named LT or LJ) who's facing a poor run defense team and I'll do fine. Give me a decent WR who catches for a stud QB than a supposedly great WR fetching balls from a rookie QB (Randy Moss).
Decent players are all over the place.
Like a hedge fund manager who sees value in one place but not another, you can fill out your roster with less than superstars and beat those who wonder why they're all-star team on paper is worth nothing more than that.
$400 sounds like a good return on a $45 dollar investment. The market rarely yields returns that good.
'Just win baby!'
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS
Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints RB and second overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5
9 carries for 23 yards, 2.6 average; 11 catches for 63 yards, 5.7 average; 1 punt return late in the game for 65 yards and the game winning TD. Saints over Bucs 24-21.
Saints 4-1, first place in NFC South
Mario Williams (Houston Texans DE and first overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft) had a bye week.
Texans 1-4, third place in AFC South looking up at 5-0 Indianapolis Colts
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
Chargers v. San Francisco 49'ers
The Line: Chargers by 9.5
Breakdown: Are you kidding me?? Granted, the Niners' are an improved offensive team this year but the Bolts' D rivals the Ravens and Bears for NFL supremacy anchored by sack master Sean Merriman. I remember a decade ago when these two teams met for the Super Bowl and it was SF who was the gold standard and the Chargers were the up and coming team. Funny, how those roles have reversed. If Philip Rivers keeps playing this well, fans like me will have nothing to bitch about all the way to the Super Bowl. Go Bolts!
My Pick: Chargers 38, San Francisco 13.
New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Line: Eagles by 3.
Breakdown: Hello people, the Saints are for real. How many more times do skeptics have to see it to believe it. Drew Brees spreads the ball around. Deuce pounds it up the middle. Joe Horn spreads the defense out. Marques Colston is the tallest TE I've ever seen and can outjump any LB and of course Reggie Bush is a threat from anywhere on the field. Philly can't expect to simply rush Brees all day and knock him silly like they did to Drew Bledsoe last week. I know the Eagles have the best offense in the league right now, but the Saints can get after Donovan McNabb and play defense too. It's not a football game in New Orleans. It's a revival service!
My Pick: Saints by 3
Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders
The Line: Denver by 14.5
Breakdown: that's too generous . . . to Oakland. Matched up against a team that can shut down the run and has only allowed 1 TD all season the Raiders will be lucky to get more than a couple of field goals. No TD's for overrated Randy Moss. No more catches for problem child Joey Porter.
My Pick: Broncos by 21. Denver 27, Oakland 6.
Chargers win 40-7!
I knew Tennessee was bad, but can the Bolts' be this good?? Michael Turner has more yards rushing than LT. Phillip Rivers looks like a 3 year veteran rather than 1st time starter and the only TD scored against us was in garbage time in the second half. Be afraid AFC, be very afraid.
Just when I thought Philly looked like they were back, they blow a 17 point lead at home in the 4th quarter and lose in OT. G'Men are still the class of the NFC East . . .
. . . speaking of which, to go on the road, in overly hostile Philadelphia and pull out that kind of a win late in the game when most of us had switched the channel already, he's no longer Peyton's little brother. Call him Eli.
Is September too early for Raider Nation to go into hibernation until next season?. They can't really go 0-16 can they?? I hope so.
Good guys, Bad guys
Good guys
Marvin Harrison; 7 catches, 127 yards in easy win over Houston. Colts 2-0
Chad Johnson; 6 catches, 78 yards, 1 TD dance. Bengals 2-0.
Bad guys
Terrell Owens; 3 catches, 19 yards, 1 broken finger. Cowboys 1-1
Randy Moss; 2 catches, 32 yards and Raiders still have 0 TD's. Oakland 0-2
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS. Week Two Comparison
Reggie Bush v. Green Bay Packers;
6 carries for 5 yards, 8 catches for 68 yards, longest for 23.
Nothing spectacular but continues to impress and show his versatility. Opposing Defenses have to account for him making his teammates better; QB Brees, RB Mc Callister, WR Horn and TE Colston all contributing. Saints overcame 13-0 deficit to win 34-27 on the road in Green Bay, improving to 2-0 on the road this year. Showing the twin hallmarks of all good teams, ability to come from behind, able to get it down on the road. Return to Superdome for first time since Hurricane Katrina Monday Night.
Saints 2-0, tied for first place in NFC South
Mario Williams v. Indianapolis Colts;
2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 forced fumbles, 0 interceptions.
Helped Houston little in (not) getting to Peyton and (not) slowing Colts down en route to surrendering 43 points in one-sided defeat.
Texans 0-2, last place in AFC South.
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
3 games to follow this week
(1) Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Storyline: The first encounter between AFC North rivals and face-to-face matchup between QB Carson Palmer and Pittsburgh Defense since crushing injury ended Palmer's season (and Bengals) in playoffs last year. We all know the Steelers can play D and the Bengals can move the ball. Steelers must look more like the team that beat Dolphins (w/Batch) in season opener and less like the team that was shutout in Jacksonville (w/Roethlesberger) last week. Do I smell a QB controversy? It doesn't matter who throws for Steelers, Bengals have something to prove.
My Pick: Cincinnati by 10.
(2) Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Storyline: Rematch of last year's playoff game, where Broncos ended Patriots Super Bowl 3-Peat. I still think the Pats outplayed them in that game and would have won if not for 5 turnovers. Poor execution beat NE, not the Broncos. For whatever reason, Denver has had the Pats number the past couple years, the only team in the NFL to have a clue how to beat them. Those games however were all in the Mile High air of Denver. This one's in Massachussetts, and I'll bet on Belicheck and Brady every time.
My Pick: New England by 7.
(3) Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Storyline: Game of the Year (so far). What you say?? Pick your matchup. RBs Reggie Bush v. Warrick Dunn. Playmakers Reggie Bush v. Michael Vick. NFC South divisional rivals. Battle of 2-0 teams. All the hype and electricity takes a back seat to the real winner here, the people of New Orleans and South Louisiana. I remember a year ago at this time serious people were writing the Superdome's obituary and moving the Saints franchise to San Antonio, or LA*. Amazing what a new coach, new superstar and most important a new attitude can do to a team. The Saints have sold out every game for this season for the first time in their history. That's not a big feat in most other NFL cities but remarkable considering the circumstances since Hurricane Katrina. Atlanta isn't coming for a revival service, but to win a football game and considering how good their defense has been so far, the Saints have their work cut out for them. Matchups are about more than size and statistics though and the reason sports can be so compelling is because they are about people and performances. Numbers simply calculate the drama.
My Pick: Saints by 3.
* = Given the perpetual back and forth between the NFL and the City of Los Angeles on finding the right location to house an NFL team here in sunny SoCal (the historic Coliseum? the Rose Bowl in Pasadena? next to Hollywood Park? across the street from the Big A in Anaheim? Irvine??) don't start your countdown to regaining an NFL franchise anytime soon. Has it been 12 years since the Haiters and Lambs left town?? Much as I want a team to call our own it shouldn't be the Saints. They belong to New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.
I know owner Tom Benson wants out of the Superdome and a more cash-friendly stadium, complete with luxury boxes that does in to the NFL revenue sharing fund but his pocket. His financial self-interest is legitimate and cannot be dismissed as Dr. Scroogelike. He had issues before Katrina. He has a right to have them now. It is his money that purchased them and his money that rises and falls with their franchise value. One cannot ask him to lose money simply because of the uncertainty of the Saints franchise, or because he is a very rich man able to shed a few millions for the sake of New Orleans. The NFL however has a larger interest than Benson, and does have a duty and an obligation to stick around in the wake of Katrina and do its part to rebuild and revitalize New Orleans. If Benson still wants out, or to sell, buy him out and keep the Saints there. Let the people of New Orleans buy an ownership stake much like the people of Green Bay own the Packers. If it's a new stadium he wants that will make the Saints more fiscally competitive with other NFL franchises then subsidize the creation of a new stadium. It's not like the Saints were a recent expansion team or relocated from another city themselves. The Saints are the oldest sports franchise in Louisiana, and New Orleans has hosted several Super Bowls. And we all know the NFL likes to host its gazillion dollar corporate bashes on Bourbon Street Super Bowl week rather than oh, say frigid and dour Detroit.
Rumor once had it that the Seahawks were thinking about leaving Seattle, and then that the Cardinals were abandoning Arizona to come here. Neither relocations came about and both of those franchises have built new stadiums and seem to be doing just fine where they are. There's no reason the Saints can't make a go of it in New Orleans. I don't want the Los Angeles Saints.
bigger brother always bests little brother in the end. not only did peyton win but indy led the whole way. i know i know, eli had a higher qb rating, threw 2 tds to peyton's 1 but stats never tell the whole story. tell the folks over at sabermetrics and moneyball that if they ever listen
new england may not be the best team or even the most talented, and keeps losing players right and left (branch) and still finds a way to win. credit belichick and tom brady, as good a qb in the league as peyton even though not the same numbers. see above on overrated statistics.
bad guys
terrell owens (played pretty good), dallas cowboys 0--1.
randy moss, oakland raiders 0--1
good guys
marvin harrison, indy 1--0
chad johnson, cincinnati 1--0
i'm still trying to figure out if baltimore is that good, or tampa bay that bad (baltimore 26 tampa bay 0)
chicago's d is that good, and green bay's o that bad (bears 27-0) sorry bret favre.
i don't need to figure out that the chargers are pretty good (lt, gates and merriman) and the oakland raiders are so very, horribly bad.
sc' alums
welcome back carson, hello reggie bush!
arizona looks like they have finally turned the corner from mediocre into possibly something special. keep learning matt leinart, you're day will come sooner than later.
i like what i saw from atlanta, i did not like what i saw from carolina. i'm amending my super bowl pick; indy v. i'm now undecided. does it really matter though, the afc is so much better than the nfc.
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS
(fyi, reggie bush was the ..2 pick in the nfl draft by the new orleans saints after the houston texans selected williams ..1 despite the overwhelming chorus of experts, fans and insiders all ranking bush the best player to come out of college football)
The texans were soooo dumb.
Reggie Bush week one vs. Cleveland
14 carries for 61 yards, longest for 18
8 catches for 58 yards
3 punt returns for 22 yards
0 td's
0 fumbles
23 touches for total of 141 yards
IMPACT: proved the hype is real and can handle the load. has already sold more jerseys with his ..25 than any rookie in last 5 years and given moribund saints franchise a sign of life. was the focal point for the saints offense and compliments rb deuce mc callister and wr joe horn and gives qb drew brees someone to hand off and throw to on every play. he's still a rookie and will have downs as well as ups but given the expectations, should be good for at least 1500 all-purpose yards. im betting he breaks 2000.
get excited new orleans, reggie bush is mardi gras.
Mario Williams week one v. Philadelphia
3 tackles
0 sacks
0 forced fumbles
IMPACT: little if any. opposing qb donovan mc nabb had a great day throwing for 3 td's and making easy work of texans beleagured d. sorry houston. mario may very well turn out to be a good player, but you could have had reggie. projected rb dominique davis is out for the year and david carr still has little protection. how long before texans fans start showing up with bags on their heads and calling for regime change upstairs???
WEEK TWO TRIFECTA
(1) Sunday Studs
indy and cincinnati both at home big over houston and cleveland. c'mon, that's too easy. peyton will go for 4 td's and 350. marvin harrison, reggie wayne and dallas clark will all have big games. carson will go for 3 td's and 300. chad johnson will see the endzone more times than randy moss and terrell owens combined.
(2) Upset of the Day
arizona will beat seattle in seattle. laugh until about 4.30 pm sunday afternoon pacific time when it becomes official. arizona is a better team than detroit with a much more potent offense. expect another shootout, but since it's still early in the season, and kurt warner hasn't broken down (yet) he's good for another solid game and edge will keep the chains moving and shawn alexander off the field enough to keep it close. arizona wins it late in a shootout 31--28.
(3) Bolts' Home Opener
sunny socal, la dainian tomlinson (best rb in the game), antonio gates (best te in the game) and shawn merriman (best young de in the game) will be more than enough to power chargers over tennessee and keep building phillip rivers confidence. sd had no business letting drew brees go, but what's done is done. given how bad oakland is, that trent green of kc is out for several weeks and denver is already calling for plummer's head, this division could be ours for the taking. wishful thinking???
(sidebar) I don't pick winners for every game, that's what bookies and ESPN are for. I pick out three of the most interesting games on the calendar and give my opinion. Wait til' after Monday night to tell me how wrong I was.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Line: Chiefs by 1.5
WHO'S GOT MORE TO PROVE?
Easily the closest game of the day, on paper. Both teams have questions to answers before claiming to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. For Cincy, is Carson Palmer healthy? For KC, is Larry Johnson for real or another one-hit wonder?? The second highest over under of the day, look for this one to be a shootout.
My pick: Whoever has the ball last, hopefully that will be the Bengals.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
The Line: Colts by 3
WHO'S THE (MAN)NING?
Early season game of the year. C'mon, Peyton vs. Eli, Manning Bowl I, this game had Sunday night opener written on it when the schedule first came out last spring. Ok, once the hype ends and they kick off what to expect? I take the players at their word, that neither Peyton nor Eli are looking forward to this. Look for a slow beginning. The G-men have Tiki to hand the ball off too and Indy is going to learn what life without Edgerrin James is like. By the second half though, the novelty should wear off and the competitive nature of both QB's should set it. I heard that Eli beat Peyton in a game of pickup basketball when he was in HS and Peyton at Tennessee, and afterward, they didn't talk for several days. Little brother can never outshine bigger brother. Peyton is still the best QB in the game for a reason and on a mission to claim the Super Bowl ring that tragically eluded him year. Beating little brother Eli in week one is an appropriate beginning.
My pick: Indy by 2 TD's.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Line: Chargers by 3
RIVALRY GAME
Whether one of these two teams, or both, is bad this is still one of the more entertaining games to watch. My verdict is still out on Phillip Rivers, even though the Bolts' front office confirmed by belief in their own incompetence this off-season in letting Drew Brees walk. That said, we still have the best RB in the game in LT, the best Tight End in Gates, and an improved Defense over last year that got better as the season went on. Of course I want to believe that we can go 16-0 this year but it's been 34 years since that happened and we're not as good as the '72 Dolphins. I'll take the wild card at 9-7. The Raiders should be 2 of those wins. Aaron Brooks is more Kerry Collins than Rich Gannon, Randy Moss is no Jerry Rice and their Defense still can't stop the run. There's a reason LT has had some of his best games against this sorry excuse for a football team. I hate the Raiders ok!
My pick: Bolts by 7