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Obama Clinches the Democratic Nomination
Barack Obama crossed the finish line yesterday evening and became the Democratic Party's de-facto nominee. After a long, hard-fought battle with Senator Clinton, now all eyes can focus on McCain and his antics and we can start thinking about the general election, right?
Well, not quite. You see, I'm betting that Clinton does not concede. Though the contest is over, she's going to try to snatch the nomination away from its winner by trying to get the superdelegates to go against the vote, continuing to claim she won the popular vote though the only way that math works is, ironically, to not count the votes of caucus states (what happened to "we must count EVERY vote!"? Oh yeah, it doesn't suit you). Sometimes it's hard to understand senator Clinton over the sound of her flip-flops.
One thing I noticed about the Clintons is that they're both extremely conspiratorial. Back during the opening salvo of the Monica Lewinsky investigation, Hillary blamed everything on a "vast, right-wing conspiracy." Earlier this year, she blamed her failing campaign on "sexism" in the media. Bill Clinton was heard earlier last week saying Barack Obama gets other people to "smear" his wife. But I suppose those bat-shit insane Clinton supporters at the DNC rules committee threatening to vote for McCain if the committee didn't overturn the rules for their candidate shouldn't reflect on the Senator, huh? This is a common, resurging trend: The Clintons do not take responsibility for their actions, and instead blame their shortcomings on others.
I support Obama because he's an intelligent, eloquent leader. I believe he will be able to not only balance the budget, but be able to give low-income families access to affordable health care. I support Obama because he will put an end to government secrecy, making Washington D.C. much more transparent to the public. But overall, I support Obama because he has the best chance of keeping John McCain out of the White House and ending the Iraq War. I do not support Obama because I hate women, Senator Clinton. Sorry to disappoint you.
Well, not quite. You see, I'm betting that Clinton does not concede. Though the contest is over, she's going to try to snatch the nomination away from its winner by trying to get the superdelegates to go against the vote, continuing to claim she won the popular vote though the only way that math works is, ironically, to not count the votes of caucus states (what happened to "we must count EVERY vote!"? Oh yeah, it doesn't suit you). Sometimes it's hard to understand senator Clinton over the sound of her flip-flops.
One thing I noticed about the Clintons is that they're both extremely conspiratorial. Back during the opening salvo of the Monica Lewinsky investigation, Hillary blamed everything on a "vast, right-wing conspiracy." Earlier this year, she blamed her failing campaign on "sexism" in the media. Bill Clinton was heard earlier last week saying Barack Obama gets other people to "smear" his wife. But I suppose those bat-shit insane Clinton supporters at the DNC rules committee threatening to vote for McCain if the committee didn't overturn the rules for their candidate shouldn't reflect on the Senator, huh? This is a common, resurging trend: The Clintons do not take responsibility for their actions, and instead blame their shortcomings on others.
I support Obama because he's an intelligent, eloquent leader. I believe he will be able to not only balance the budget, but be able to give low-income families access to affordable health care. I support Obama because he will put an end to government secrecy, making Washington D.C. much more transparent to the public. But overall, I support Obama because he has the best chance of keeping John McCain out of the White House and ending the Iraq War. I do not support Obama because I hate women, Senator Clinton. Sorry to disappoint you.
UNELECTABLE, baby
From http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1180: a new poll showing that Obama ("the precious") is UNELECTABLE!
| May 22, 2008 - McCain Leads Obama In Two Of Three Key Swing States, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton Has Big Leads In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania --- FLORIDA: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 45 - Obama 41; OHIO: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 44 - Obama 40: PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 50 - McCain 37; Obama 46 - McCain 40 |
THIS Clinton supporter will vote McCain in the fall if Clinton is not the nominee. Why?
Because I want a centrist. Moreover, the Republicans are honest about their agenda. Pro-corporations, pro-life, pro-war, pro-Evangelical, religion, pro-guns, pro-white rich guys. If you're Jewish, female, a child, elderly, Hispanic, African American, or union...well, they're probably not going to look out for your particular concerns.
That's honest. I can argue with them because I know where they stand.
Democrats, on the other hand, PRETEND to be for all the other suckers everyone-who's-not-a-rich-white-guy, and yet, they'll screw you while telling you they care about you, bitch sweetie.
I am turning down Obama. He is not my choice. I'm a techie, just turned 40, in a comfortable management job in the tech industry, and pretty darned liberal. He should be speaking to me. But he isn't. I already rode the unity pony onece, like all the rest of you, when the self-proclaimed 'uniter not a divider' swept into office in 2000, thanks to the disgusting and highly illegal activities of the scumbag Republicans who rigged problems with machines in Florida. Then that unity pony turned and bit us. Remember? "If you're not with us, you're against us" and dissenting voices were disappeared to Gitmo silenced, starting with the media, who seemed to be thrilled to just be allowed into the White House Press Room for a cluster press conference.
If you've been watching the way Obama's camp cries racism every time a Clinton supporter says, 'well what experience and ideas has he got EXACTLY', the way they tell us we're fucking irrelevant denigrate us, it's starting to sound a whole lot like that last unity pony that rode through here screaming 'if you're not with us, you're against us!'
McCain isn't the next Bush.
Obama is.
And he ain't getting my vote because he's U N E L E C T A B L E.
And the DNC can go to hell. People out there are pissed enough that they want Hillary to say up yours leave the party and go as an Independent. This Independent would welcome that.
Go Hillary!
It's Over! It's Finally Over!
Last night and early this morning, America witnessed the beginning of the end of the Clinton dynasty. Clinton supporters may deny it, they may still make the arguments about superdelegates and how the votes of the people don't actually matter; but the truth is a cold, cruel mistress, and it's invaded the Clinton campaign.
All eyes were on Indiana's Lake county, which contains Gary as well as other Chicago suburbs, close to Obama's home base. The county withheld all election results until the 11,000+ absentee ballots were counted, drawing out the contest into the late night and early morning. When it was all over, Clinton, the heavy favorite to win the state, squeaked out a bittersweet 2-point victory. Obama swept the other primary in North Carolina by 14 points.
Despite the slight loss in Indiana, Barack Obama won the night, increasing his overall delegate lead, even making up for his delegate loss in Pennsylvania, and making it more unlikely for his opponent to overcome it. Hillary Clinton failed to "close the deal" and keep her momentum from the Pennsylvania primary. She needed a big win in Indiana last night, and she didn't deliver.
It's interesting to look at the Indiana primary county-by-county. While Clinton won the rural, sparsely populated areas, Obama was the favorite in urban counties. While Clinton may have won some of the "big states," Obama won the "big counties" in Indiana.
Not even Michigan and Florida can save Clinton now. Even if they were counted, Obama would still lead in delegates and the popular vote. It's over, it's simply over for Hillary Clinton. I think I share many peoples' sentiments when I say "good riddance to bad rubbish." We no longer have the threat of a Bush or a Clinton in the White House, a shared dynasty that's been going on since 1981, longer than I've been alive. That gives me more hope than any Obama speech ever could.
Last night and early this morning, America witnessed the beginning of the end of the Clinton dynasty. Clinton supporters may deny it, they may still make the arguments about superdelegates and how the votes of the people don't actually matter; but the truth is a cold, cruel mistress, and it's invaded the Clinton campaign.
All eyes were on Indiana's Lake county, which contains Gary as well as other Chicago suburbs, close to Obama's home base. The county withheld all election results until the 11,000+ absentee ballots were counted, drawing out the contest into the late night and early morning. When it was all over, Clinton, the heavy favorite to win the state, squeaked out a bittersweet 2-point victory. Obama swept the other primary in North Carolina by 14 points.
Despite the slight loss in Indiana, Barack Obama won the night, increasing his overall delegate lead, even making up for his delegate loss in Pennsylvania, and making it more unlikely for his opponent to overcome it. Hillary Clinton failed to "close the deal" and keep her momentum from the Pennsylvania primary. She needed a big win in Indiana last night, and she didn't deliver.
It's interesting to look at the Indiana primary county-by-county. While Clinton won the rural, sparsely populated areas, Obama was the favorite in urban counties. While Clinton may have won some of the "big states," Obama won the "big counties" in Indiana.
Not even Michigan and Florida can save Clinton now. Even if they were counted, Obama would still lead in delegates and the popular vote. It's over, it's simply over for Hillary Clinton. I think I share many peoples' sentiments when I say "good riddance to bad rubbish." We no longer have the threat of a Bush or a Clinton in the White House, a shared dynasty that's been going on since 1981, longer than I've been alive. That gives me more hope than any Obama speech ever could.
Pennsylvania Primary
Today is the long awaited Pennsylvania democratic primary.
I think it is funny how Clinton (who wants to make any win seem big) and the media (who wants to cover the drama till the DNC) has portrayed it. Even though Obama has never been expected to do great in PA, and Clinton can't win big enough for it to matter later, this is THE big event according to the media.
When I estimated the outcome of the democratic primaries to May 20th (at which point I think no argument for Clinton staying in the race can be made), I believe I gave Clinton 95 of the 158 PA delegates (the others are superdelegates). This is probably more generous than most people have been, but I believe that she can pull that off in PA. It is pretty much everywhere else that I think she will fail to pull of a big win, and many of the remaining states she will "lose" to Obama.
Basically, today will once again decide nothing.
But it will be fun to watch.
UPDATE:
9:00pm
The first numbers are coming in, and Clinton is the projected winner. However, the margin is as of now much more narrow than I had predicted, and already they are saying that based on this, Hillary will probably go on.
I was looking over the numbers in Indiana and North Carolina, and I think that Obama is going to win more delegates there than I initially predicted as well, making this even more hopeless for Clinton. Combine that with her campaign being out of money... it isn't looking good. The question at this point is... will her win here get her more money?
I think it is funny how Clinton (who wants to make any win seem big) and the media (who wants to cover the drama till the DNC) has portrayed it. Even though Obama has never been expected to do great in PA, and Clinton can't win big enough for it to matter later, this is THE big event according to the media.
When I estimated the outcome of the democratic primaries to May 20th (at which point I think no argument for Clinton staying in the race can be made), I believe I gave Clinton 95 of the 158 PA delegates (the others are superdelegates). This is probably more generous than most people have been, but I believe that she can pull that off in PA. It is pretty much everywhere else that I think she will fail to pull of a big win, and many of the remaining states she will "lose" to Obama.
Basically, today will once again decide nothing.
But it will be fun to watch.
UPDATE:
9:00pm
The first numbers are coming in, and Clinton is the projected winner. However, the margin is as of now much more narrow than I had predicted, and already they are saying that based on this, Hillary will probably go on.
I was looking over the numbers in Indiana and North Carolina, and I think that Obama is going to win more delegates there than I initially predicted as well, making this even more hopeless for Clinton. Combine that with her campaign being out of money... it isn't looking good. The question at this point is... will her win here get her more money?
Election Coverage: My Response
I've been hearing a lot of odd talk coming out of the spin rooms this morning about the election. I have to disagree with most of the conclusions people are trying to draw from the race so far.
One is that Barack Obama is too timid to take on McCain, because he isn't campaigning as aggressively (in the negative sense) as Hilary Clinton. This is a bad conclusion to make, because campaigning against your own party is much different than campaigning against a true rival. Obama has no real incentive to attack Clinton. I don't doubt that, when the time comes, Obama will do just fine pointing out the uselessness of McCain, who will just continue the current failed policies of Bush.
The other conclusion being drawn is that the states that Clinton is winning are the big states for voter turnout in the General Election. New York, California, New Jersey, etc.... The flaw in this argument is that these states are going to be taken by Democrats anyway, as usual. McCain doesn't stand a chance in certain states, just as the Democratic Nominee doesn't stand a chance in certain other states.
This list is my interpretation of the "red state vs. blue state" situation. It might not look exactly like other lists of red and blue states because I made this list myself. I've labeled them so they are fairly self-explanatory. I compiled this list for the general election, and while compiling it, I realized that certain states tend to be good at picking the winning nominee (at least since 1968), so I listed their predictive value as well. Whether or not there is any predictive value, I leave that up to you. I am personally undecided. But I plan on watching a few of the "great predictors" to see if they do the same this year.
However, I must note... most of the states that I list as "true swing states" have voted Republican in 2000 and 2004. While this denotes a "predictive" value, it also denotes a Republican leaning as well.
So as you can see, there are relatively few states that are likely to change the way they vote. In my opinion, Obama has a better chance of bringing in the undecided/independent votes, so he would actually be the stronger nominee against John McCain.
Comments?
One is that Barack Obama is too timid to take on McCain, because he isn't campaigning as aggressively (in the negative sense) as Hilary Clinton. This is a bad conclusion to make, because campaigning against your own party is much different than campaigning against a true rival. Obama has no real incentive to attack Clinton. I don't doubt that, when the time comes, Obama will do just fine pointing out the uselessness of McCain, who will just continue the current failed policies of Bush.
The other conclusion being drawn is that the states that Clinton is winning are the big states for voter turnout in the General Election. New York, California, New Jersey, etc.... The flaw in this argument is that these states are going to be taken by Democrats anyway, as usual. McCain doesn't stand a chance in certain states, just as the Democratic Nominee doesn't stand a chance in certain other states.
This list is my interpretation of the "red state vs. blue state" situation. It might not look exactly like other lists of red and blue states because I made this list myself. I've labeled them so they are fairly self-explanatory. I compiled this list for the general election, and while compiling it, I realized that certain states tend to be good at picking the winning nominee (at least since 1968), so I listed their predictive value as well. Whether or not there is any predictive value, I leave that up to you. I am personally undecided. But I plan on watching a few of the "great predictors" to see if they do the same this year.
However, I must note... most of the states that I list as "true swing states" have voted Republican in 2000 and 2004. While this denotes a "predictive" value, it also denotes a Republican leaning as well.
| New Hampshire | | leaning democrat (fair predictor) |
| New Jersy | | Moderate Democrat |
| Florida | | Republican Leaning Swing state (good predictor) |
| Mass. | | Strong Democrat |
| Delaware | | Strong Democrat |
| DC | | Strong Democrat |
| Illinois | | Strong Democrat |
| Vermont | | Strong Democrat |
| Hawaii | | Strong Democrat |
| California | | Strong Democrat |
| Connecticut | | Strong Democrat |
| Washington | | Strong Democrat |
| Rhode Island | | Strong Democrat |
| Maine | | Strong Democrat |
| New York | | Strong Democrat |
| Wisconsin | | Strong Democrat |
| Maryland | | Strong Democrat |
| Minnesota | | Strong Democrat |
| Oregon | | Strong Democrat |
| Michigan | | Strong Democrat |
| Kansas | | Strong Republican |
| Alabama | | Strong Republican |
| Indiana | | Strong Republican |
| Alaska | | Strong Republican |
| Georgia | | Strong Republican |
| Idaho | | Strong Republican |
| Arizona | | Strong Republican |
| Nebraska | | Strong Republican |
| Montana | | Strong Republican |
| Colorado | | Strong Republican |
| North Dakota | | Strong Republican |
| North Carolina | | Strong Republican |
| Oklahoma | | Strong Republican |
| Wyoming | | Strong Republican |
| Virginia | | Strong Republican |
| Utah | | Strong Republican |
| Texas | | Strong Republican |
| South Carolina | | Strong Republican |
| Mississippi | | Strong Republican |
| South Dakota | | Strong Republican |
| Ohio | | True Swing State (Great predictor) |
| Tennessee | | True Swing State (Great predictor) |
| Louisiana | | True Swing State (good predictor) |
| Missouri | | True swing State (good predictor) |
| Kentucky | | True Swing State (great predictor) |
| Arkansas | | True Swing State (great predictor) |
| Nevada | | True Swing State (good predictor) |
| Pennsylvania | | Weak Democrat. |
| West Virginia | | Weak Republican |
| New Mexico | | Weak Republican (voted for D 2000, R 2004) |
| Iowa | | Weak Republican, (fair predictor) |
So as you can see, there are relatively few states that are likely to change the way they vote. In my opinion, Obama has a better chance of bringing in the undecided/independent votes, so he would actually be the stronger nominee against John McCain.
Comments?
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