Philadelphia Eagles @ MindSay 
If the Patriots can get trounced tomorrow night, all will be well in the world of sports until baseball season begins anew in 5 weeks. So, for tomorrow, go Bears...go Chargers and thank Slayer the Colts outplayed the gang banging criminals called the Baltimore Ravens. Ray Lewis should be in prison.
Current mood: 
happy
Category: Sports
THOUGHTS ON WEEK 6 IN THE NFL
I usually reserve this weekly post to all things NFL but the brawl that took place on Saturday's college game between the University of Miami and Florida International University marks not only another low point for chronically overrated Miami but should be an embarassment to all of college football. What bothered me most was not the herd mentality that players displayed in joining in with their teammates but that the officials and coaches lacked the ability to take control. For a few minutes it became a gang fight in football pads. And unlike the ugly brawl that marred the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers game two years ago this incident seemed to delght the fans who were there. Miami spirit squad members ran around the field waving the Hurricane flags as if this was a sanctioned UFC bout and a good many of the fans in the stands were on their feet cheering them on like a bunch of junior high school kids rallying around two kids going at it. What's done is done and the image of Miami once again of an outlaw college football program that has no standards with regards to the types of players it recruits, preparing them to become Oakland Raiders one day. The University President has come out in force and several of the players involved have been suspended; for one game, the easy game against Duke this week back in time for nationally ranked Georgia Tech and all will be forgotten. Tell you what they should do. Suspend each player involved in actual fighting and furthering the melee for the remainder of the season. Fire Coach Coker, who hasn't exactly done a good job this year now. All of those players involved in inciting more violence or going above and beyond simple pushing and shoving, like kicking opposing players on the ground and throwing helmets at opposing players heads should not only be suspended from the team for life, but should be expelled from the University. The Dade County district attorney should file criminal assault and battery charges, and inciting a riot. Send the message that such conduct has consequences beyond overnite ratings. ESPN should stop replaying bits of it on tv. It was a news story the first time, every time hence, treats it not as such but as entertainment and a spectacle to watch. Of course that means drawing a line between competitive sport and entertainment, and we all know in todays 24/7 global satellite media culture there's enough time and space to show everything. Over and over again until the next ever more outrageous clip of video comes along and we do it all over again.
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS
(Reggie Bush was the ..2 player chosen in the 2006 NFL draft by the New Orleans Saints, after being widely regarded as the consensus ..1 pick by every expert in favor of Mario Williams by the Houston Texans)
Reggie Bush--RB
Stats for Week 6 against the Philadelphia Eagles; 11 carries for 26 yards, 4 catches for 35 yards, 3 punt returns for 29 yards, 0 touchdowns
Breakdown: 18 total touches for 90 yards total in helping Saints beat Philly as time expired by a field goal 27-24. Hasn't had that monster game we saw over and over again at USC, but has shown flashes of it when he has the ball in the open field and is a legitimate threat every time he touches the ball.
Impact: He makes it tough on opposing defenses because he can line up in the backfield, in the slot, out wide and gives N.O. so many options and formations that allows Drew Brees to make plays. It's no coincidence that WR Joe Horn and RB Deuce McCallister are having solid years in no small part because of what Reggue brings to the table, and I imagine as more and more defenses scheme up ways to stop Horn and McCallister, Bush will get more opportunities. He makes others better and that in turn will make him better. After going 3-13 all of last year the Saints are certainly better and more than just a feel-good story this year at 5-1 and in first place in the NFC South. The Saints are a bona-fide playoff team and will be playing this January.
Mario Williams--DE
Stats for Week 6 against the Dallas Cowboys; 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries, 0 interceptions.
Breakdown: Houston lost to Dallas 34-6. After leading Cowboys 6-3 at halftime the Texans couldn't stop the run, couldn't pressure Bledsoe and couldn't contain Terrell Owens, who had his best game yet as a Cowboy.
Impact: Texans are 1-5, tied for last place in AFC South with Tennessee and getting worse each week. Is it basketball season yet in South Texas cuz' this team's heading nowhere and Mario Williams is no help.
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sporting Line: San Diego by 5.5
Breakdown: C'mon they demolished an improving San Franciso team last week scoring 48 points! They have the best RB in the game (LT not Larry Johnson), the best TE in the game (Gates not Gonzalez), the best front 7 outside of Chicago and an impressive young QB. KC is beat up and one dimensional. Sure it's a divisional game and on the road so I'll give KC the first half to hang around, but the Bolts have too many weapons, the Chiefs too few. The Bolts put too much pressure on opposing QBs and force mistakes and can stop the run. Onwards to 5-1.
My Pick: San Diego by 13; 33-20.
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns
Sporting Line: Denver by 4.5
Breakdown: Denver (that other really good team in the AFC West) isn't explosive or sexy, but they have allowed only 1 defensive TD through 5 games and given up the fewest points. Cleveland is a game opponent with some fight in them (the Oakland Raiders they aren't), but can't establish the run on offense or attack with a vertical passing game. Denver's D and ball-control offense will take command of this game even if the score looks less impressive.
My Pick: Denver by 14; 20-6.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sporting Line: Pittsburgh by 2.5
Breakdown: These are two teams headed in opposite directions. Pittsburgh's QB Ben Roethlisburger seems like he's finally emerged from his early season struggles and they have been able to run the ball again. And play pretty good defense too. Atlanta is fun to watch with QB Michael Vick and RB Warrick Dunn but is largely one dimensional. Pittsburgh is clearly getting better and about to hit its stride. Atlanta is not the same team that started 2-0.
My Pick: Pittsburgh by 4; 17-13.
Last Week: 3-0
Season: 13-3.
THOUGHTS ON FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUES
Ok, so I'm a football fan. You and I both know this. And baseball, and college sports, throw in my Lakers, Golf and Tiger, Tennis and Maria, I even got caught up in horse racing this year. I've never joined a fantasy league though. Never wanted too. I got signed up by my roommates in college senior year, but had the automatic draft and never really played in it. Maybe because it was free. I always kind of picutured fantasy fans as geeks and nerds who could never play the sport competitively themselves, the same types of guys who play computer games all day and wear glasses. Like that nerdy guy on ESPN (John Clayton I think is his name) who ex-QB Sean Salisbury loves to pick on. Until this year. And not because I started wearing glasses or stopped working out. Au contraire. A couple of guys I work with got me interested and the thought of winning the pot was too enticing to pass up. $40 buy in for the season X 8 people playing and the winner grosses $400. 'Just win baby'.
So the season is 1/3 over and I'm in 3rd place at 3-2. Not bad for a rookie. The top four make the playoffs, which is really week 15 and week 16 of the regular season. What I've figured out already is that most of the people who play fantasy football, not just in my league, but the cottage industry of writers, media and gurus who are the so-called "experts" may know a lot about football, but they know little about winning and next to nothing about arbitrage.
Arbitrage??
Picture this for a second; your typical sophisticated investor sitting at his computer who is smart enough to realize that the selling price for an item, say gasoline here in SoCal is not the same selling price as gasoline is in say, Texas (where lower fuel standards make it cheaper), or in say Western Europe (where higher fuel standards make it more expensive) even though the gallon of gasoline is the same exact gallon in one place as it is in another. That is what is known as arbitrage. The fancy term for buying and selling goods in one market at a different price than in another. Smart traders buy low in one market and sell high in another and pocket the difference.
What the hell does that have to do with fantasy football you say?
Simple.
Take a player, any player, at your required positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K and Defense). Conventional wisdom, and this is what my guys told me on draft day, was to pick players according to fantasy ranking, more or less. Only a fool would pick a rookie QB instead of Peyton Manning for example, because Peyton is a better player who over the course of the season will have better stats, thus earn more fantasy points for you. True, but the number of players out there who truly can be counted on to perform over the course of the season is a lot smaller than the experts realize. Guys get hurt (see Sean Alexander). Guys underperform (see Ben Roethlesberger). Guys overperform (see Rex Grossman). Any sports fan knows this and especially in a contact sport like football, injuries are a guarantee. The trick is to have a strong enough bench. I doubt though that most people will have the same roster at the end of the season that they did on draft day. What does that tell you?
That picking up guys along the way and letting guys go, via trades and waivers is the best way to not just improve your team, but to stay competitive. Why then have only four out of eight of us really been active in terms of updating our rosters. I've been the most active thus far. And I'm not just talking about shuffling your roster around so that your players who have their bye weeks sit on the bench for a week, I mean acquire and release players.
Good players.
Like the hedge fund trader who knows that gasoline sells higher in market A, but less in market B, my strategy has been to focus less on raw stats, which overvalue yards and touchdowns but undervalue wins and pick up and cut loose guys for the same week to take advantage of matchups in that players favor, even if he's not necessarily a guy you would initially pick on draft day. Give me a decent RB on a decent team (not named LT or LJ) who's facing a poor run defense team and I'll do fine. Give me a decent WR who catches for a stud QB than a supposedly great WR fetching balls from a rookie QB (Randy Moss).
Decent players are all over the place.
Like a hedge fund manager who sees value in one place but not another, you can fill out your roster with less than superstars and beat those who wonder why they're all-star team on paper is worth nothing more than that.
$400 sounds like a good return on a $45 dollar investment. The market rarely yields returns that good.
'Just win baby!'
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS
Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints RB and second overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5
9 carries for 23 yards, 2.6 average; 11 catches for 63 yards, 5.7 average; 1 punt return late in the game for 65 yards and the game winning TD. Saints over Bucs 24-21.
Saints 4-1, first place in NFC South
Mario Williams (Houston Texans DE and first overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft) had a bye week.
Texans 1-4, third place in AFC South looking up at 5-0 Indianapolis Colts
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
Chargers v. San Francisco 49'ers
The Line: Chargers by 9.5
Breakdown: Are you kidding me?? Granted, the Niners' are an improved offensive team this year but the Bolts' D rivals the Ravens and Bears for NFL supremacy anchored by sack master Sean Merriman. I remember a decade ago when these two teams met for the Super Bowl and it was SF who was the gold standard and the Chargers were the up and coming team. Funny, how those roles have reversed. If Philip Rivers keeps playing this well, fans like me will have nothing to bitch about all the way to the Super Bowl. Go Bolts!
My Pick: Chargers 38, San Francisco 13.
New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Line: Eagles by 3.
Breakdown: Hello people, the Saints are for real. How many more times do skeptics have to see it to believe it. Drew Brees spreads the ball around. Deuce pounds it up the middle. Joe Horn spreads the defense out. Marques Colston is the tallest TE I've ever seen and can outjump any LB and of course Reggie Bush is a threat from anywhere on the field. Philly can't expect to simply rush Brees all day and knock him silly like they did to Drew Bledsoe last week. I know the Eagles have the best offense in the league right now, but the Saints can get after Donovan McNabb and play defense too. It's not a football game in New Orleans. It's a revival service!
My Pick: Saints by 3
Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders
The Line: Denver by 14.5
Breakdown: that's too generous . . . to Oakland. Matched up against a team that can shut down the run and has only allowed 1 TD all season the Raiders will be lucky to get more than a couple of field goals. No TD's for overrated Randy Moss. No more catches for problem child Joey Porter.
My Pick: Broncos by 21. Denver 27, Oakland 6.
Contenders & Pretenders
Contenders; NY Jets, Pretenders; Miami Dolphins
Contenders; Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars & San Diego Chargers, Pretenders; defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers
Contenders; Philadelphia Eagles, Pretenders; Washington Redskins & NY Giants
Contenders; New Orleans Saints, St. Louis Rams, Pretenders; Arizona Cardinals
Better than Advertised; Chicago Bears who can now play both sides of the field and not just defense, the Indinapolis Colts who have been able to win without much of a running game, and the New England Patriots who lose players every year and still outcoach and outprepare every other team week in and week out and have yet to lose consecutive games for the past four seasons.
Worse than Advertised; Tennesse Titans, Houston Texans and the Evil Oakland Raiders (0-4) on their way to 0-16??
Playoff & Super Bowl Pick Adjustments
AFC West--Denver Broncos (then), Denver Broncos (now)
AFC North--Cincinnati Bengals (then), Baltimore Ravens (now)
AFC South--Indianapolis Colts (then), Indianapolis Colts (now)
AFC East--Miami Dolphins (then), New England Patriots (now)
AFC Wild Cards--New England Patriots & Kansas City Chiefs (then), San Diego Chargers & Cincinnati Bengals (now)
AFC Champs--Indianapolis Colts (then), Indianapolis Colts (now)
AFC Chumps--Houston Texans (then), Tennesse Titans & Oakland Raiders (now)
NFC West--Seattle Seahawks (then), St. Louis Rams (now)
NFC North--Chicago Bears (then), Chicago Bears (now)
NFC South--Carolina Panthers (then), New Orleans Saints (now)
NFC East--Dallas Cowboys (then), Philadelphia Eagles (now)
NFC Wild Cards--Arizona Cardinals & NY Giants (then), Atlanta Falcons & Seattle Seahawks (now)
NFC Champs--Carolina Panthers (then), Chicago Bears (now)
NFC Chumps--Detroit Lions (then), Detroit Lions (now)
Super Bowl XLI Champions--Indinapolis Colts (then), Indianapolis Colts (now)
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS, WEEK FOUR
Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints 3-1) v. Carolina Panthers
11 carries, 22 yards rushing, 4 catches for 48 yards, 1 fumble lost
Season: 45 carries for 147 yards, 3.3 avg, 23 catches for 187 yards, 8.1 avg. 0 TDs, 1 fumble
Mario Williams (Houston Texans 1-3) v. Miami Dolphins
2 tackles, 1.5 sacks.
Season; 10 tackles, 1.5 sacks
Williams had his best game yet in beating an underachieving team, Bush his worst game in coming back and almost beating a tough divisional opponent on the road. Williams team is 1-3, Bush 3-1. The Houston Texans are out of the divisional race and already playing out the schedule. The Saints are one of the biggest early season surprises and not going away any time soon. The Texans made a huge mistake in drafting Williams ..1 over Reggie Bush.
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
Chargers v. Steelers
The Line; Chargers by 3.
My Pick; Chargers by 10.
Broncos v. Ravens
The Line; Broncos by 4.
My Pick; Broncos by 3.
Eagles v. Cowboys
The Line; Eagles by 1.5.
My Pick; Eagles by 3.
Chargers win 40-7!
I knew Tennessee was bad, but can the Bolts' be this good?? Michael Turner has more yards rushing than LT. Phillip Rivers looks like a 3 year veteran rather than 1st time starter and the only TD scored against us was in garbage time in the second half. Be afraid AFC, be very afraid.
Just when I thought Philly looked like they were back, they blow a 17 point lead at home in the 4th quarter and lose in OT. G'Men are still the class of the NFC East . . .
. . . speaking of which, to go on the road, in overly hostile Philadelphia and pull out that kind of a win late in the game when most of us had switched the channel already, he's no longer Peyton's little brother. Call him Eli.
Is September too early for Raider Nation to go into hibernation until next season?. They can't really go 0-16 can they?? I hope so.
Good guys, Bad guys
Good guys
Marvin Harrison; 7 catches, 127 yards in easy win over Houston. Colts 2-0
Chad Johnson; 6 catches, 78 yards, 1 TD dance. Bengals 2-0.
Bad guys
Terrell Owens; 3 catches, 19 yards, 1 broken finger. Cowboys 1-1
Randy Moss; 2 catches, 32 yards and Raiders still have 0 TD's. Oakland 0-2
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS. Week Two Comparison
Reggie Bush v. Green Bay Packers;
6 carries for 5 yards, 8 catches for 68 yards, longest for 23.
Nothing spectacular but continues to impress and show his versatility. Opposing Defenses have to account for him making his teammates better; QB Brees, RB Mc Callister, WR Horn and TE Colston all contributing. Saints overcame 13-0 deficit to win 34-27 on the road in Green Bay, improving to 2-0 on the road this year. Showing the twin hallmarks of all good teams, ability to come from behind, able to get it down on the road. Return to Superdome for first time since Hurricane Katrina Monday Night.
Saints 2-0, tied for first place in NFC South
Mario Williams v. Indianapolis Colts;
2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 forced fumbles, 0 interceptions.
Helped Houston little in (not) getting to Peyton and (not) slowing Colts down en route to surrendering 43 points in one-sided defeat.
Texans 0-2, last place in AFC South.
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
3 games to follow this week
(1) Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Storyline: The first encounter between AFC North rivals and face-to-face matchup between QB Carson Palmer and Pittsburgh Defense since crushing injury ended Palmer's season (and Bengals) in playoffs last year. We all know the Steelers can play D and the Bengals can move the ball. Steelers must look more like the team that beat Dolphins (w/Batch) in season opener and less like the team that was shutout in Jacksonville (w/Roethlesberger) last week. Do I smell a QB controversy? It doesn't matter who throws for Steelers, Bengals have something to prove.
My Pick: Cincinnati by 10.
(2) Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Storyline: Rematch of last year's playoff game, where Broncos ended Patriots Super Bowl 3-Peat. I still think the Pats outplayed them in that game and would have won if not for 5 turnovers. Poor execution beat NE, not the Broncos. For whatever reason, Denver has had the Pats number the past couple years, the only team in the NFL to have a clue how to beat them. Those games however were all in the Mile High air of Denver. This one's in Massachussetts, and I'll bet on Belicheck and Brady every time.
My Pick: New England by 7.
(3) Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Storyline: Game of the Year (so far). What you say?? Pick your matchup. RBs Reggie Bush v. Warrick Dunn. Playmakers Reggie Bush v. Michael Vick. NFC South divisional rivals. Battle of 2-0 teams. All the hype and electricity takes a back seat to the real winner here, the people of New Orleans and South Louisiana. I remember a year ago at this time serious people were writing the Superdome's obituary and moving the Saints franchise to San Antonio, or LA*. Amazing what a new coach, new superstar and most important a new attitude can do to a team. The Saints have sold out every game for this season for the first time in their history. That's not a big feat in most other NFL cities but remarkable considering the circumstances since Hurricane Katrina. Atlanta isn't coming for a revival service, but to win a football game and considering how good their defense has been so far, the Saints have their work cut out for them. Matchups are about more than size and statistics though and the reason sports can be so compelling is because they are about people and performances. Numbers simply calculate the drama.
My Pick: Saints by 3.
* = Given the perpetual back and forth between the NFL and the City of Los Angeles on finding the right location to house an NFL team here in sunny SoCal (the historic Coliseum? the Rose Bowl in Pasadena? next to Hollywood Park? across the street from the Big A in Anaheim? Irvine??) don't start your countdown to regaining an NFL franchise anytime soon. Has it been 12 years since the Haiters and Lambs left town?? Much as I want a team to call our own it shouldn't be the Saints. They belong to New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.
I know owner Tom Benson wants out of the Superdome and a more cash-friendly stadium, complete with luxury boxes that does in to the NFL revenue sharing fund but his pocket. His financial self-interest is legitimate and cannot be dismissed as Dr. Scroogelike. He had issues before Katrina. He has a right to have them now. It is his money that purchased them and his money that rises and falls with their franchise value. One cannot ask him to lose money simply because of the uncertainty of the Saints franchise, or because he is a very rich man able to shed a few millions for the sake of New Orleans. The NFL however has a larger interest than Benson, and does have a duty and an obligation to stick around in the wake of Katrina and do its part to rebuild and revitalize New Orleans. If Benson still wants out, or to sell, buy him out and keep the Saints there. Let the people of New Orleans buy an ownership stake much like the people of Green Bay own the Packers. If it's a new stadium he wants that will make the Saints more fiscally competitive with other NFL franchises then subsidize the creation of a new stadium. It's not like the Saints were a recent expansion team or relocated from another city themselves. The Saints are the oldest sports franchise in Louisiana, and New Orleans has hosted several Super Bowls. And we all know the NFL likes to host its gazillion dollar corporate bashes on Bourbon Street Super Bowl week rather than oh, say frigid and dour Detroit.
Rumor once had it that the Seahawks were thinking about leaving Seattle, and then that the Cardinals were abandoning Arizona to come here. Neither relocations came about and both of those franchises have built new stadiums and seem to be doing just fine where they are. There's no reason the Saints can't make a go of it in New Orleans. I don't want the Los Angeles Saints.
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