Does anyone else feel that the Greens will make massive ground in the 2010 Australian federal election?
I am convinced that they will not only score their highest percentage vote from the electorate in a federal election, but that they may well achieve a better result than any non-coalition minor party has ever received (at least since the Protectionists merged with the Free Trade Party in the first decade of the 20th century).
There are pointers to suggest this might be the case. The last minor party to receive more than 10% of the Lower House vote were the Democrats in 1990. Then, like now, the country was run by a center-right Labor Party, and the Democrats were the primary left-wing minor party of their time. There's reason to believe that on top of this, the Greens have even more drawing power due to the heightened relevance of environmental concerns, and the unusual ideological proximity of by the two major parties.
It should make basic logical sense that the closer the major parties find themselves ideologically, the more support will grow for minor parties on both left and right. We have a situation at the moment where Rudd's Labor and Turnbull's Liberals are barely distinguishable, both taking a soft-right stance on most issues (with Rudd's religious influence and Turnbull's moderate libertarianism making matters even more skewed). Thus, it would seem, The Greens will be the only significant option available for left-wing voters in the upcoming election.
It's not that Rudd is terribly unpopular. It's more that he's missing one of his greatest weapons of the 2007 election: John Howard.
Rudd could afford to court conservatives in 2007 and still rely on a decent center-left vote with the general desire to get rid of Howard at any cost. As Rudd's term goes on, it must be dawning on more and more left-leaning voters that they elected another conservative. Gillard's support of Israel in recent weeks is the latest evidence of this, and the likelihood is that that feeling (and accompanied resentment) from the left will only grow as Rudd's first term drags on.
Of course, a majority of voters will, as always, vote conservatively. The point is that their vote will be split by the two major parties, and perhaps even more so by an emerging minor party on the right if it is seen that Turnbull is too moderate.
One thing that may hurt the Greens' chances is the recession. It seems likely that environmental concerns may wane in importance compared to immediate financial difficulties, and the next election may well be won on the economy. Also, some may point to the wax and wane of other minor parties throughout Australian political history (e.g. the Democrats, One Nation and the DLP) as evidence that they may be reaching their apex in terms of receiving votes from the electorate.
Nevertheless, they may well be winning the battle against the perception that they are simply a party for left-wing academics and idealistic university students. As mentioned above, their environmental stance must have given them a considerable amount of credibility, and also helps in giving the Greens a direction that the Democrats may have been lacking. Furthermore, the financial situation could yet result in a backlash against the major parties.
The fact remains that we have yet to see the real benefits the party might reap from the ALP's conservatism. I would not be surprised if their 7.79% result from the 2007 election is doubled in 2010. They won't be forming government any time soon, and they're probably still a few elections off becoming our third major party, if that ever happens. It's been over a hundred years since we've had three major parties (depending on how one defines the National Party), but the last election in the UK seemed to indicate that it may be possible here as well.
Regardless, I don't think anyone would dispute that the Greens are a powerful political force that still has a lot of growth left. The question is how much exactly they can yet achieve.
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