Indianapolis Colts @ MindSay 
football
Incredible! Colts FINALLY WIN the AFC!!! Peyton really deserved it, man that whole Colts team deserves this shot. Man soooo many people doubting them. But man to have Tom Brady as your freaking rival. Don't worry Tom you still got a lot of life left! But yeah, FIRST Superbowl with head coaches being African Amercian. And two teams who I we thought never see for a looooong time. Indy Colts, Versus the Chi Bears!!!! The plays off have been great!!!!!! Most have been decided practically by field goals!!!
I don't know who to go for man. Both teams really been putting all into it!!!!!!!!! Who you going for!?!?! They're playing that COORS Light commercials about the old coach for the Colts lol!!! PLAYSOFFS!!! PLAYOFFS!!! Who you kidding me PLAYOFFS!!! lol
Category: Sports
THOUGHTS ON WEEK 7 IN THE NFL
So it's not just major league baseball that has a problem with steroids. Pity, poor Shawne Merriman and my San Diego Chargers. While most of us have no idea what nandrolone is and when pressed probably couldn't even name three actual steroids, it's become the evil buzz word to be avoided at all costs. Mention the word steroids and you are guilty until proven innocent and assumed a cheater. While I don't believe that Merriman didn't know what the supplements he was taking contained I personally don't care what he took. He shouldn't be suspended because he did nothing wrong. Neither allegedly did Barry Bonds, nor Mark McGwire. Steroids is a word when the busybodies who run sports leagues and get hauled in front of Congressional committees have to label as bad and wrong and cheating without actually making the case for how it skews the quality of play and gives one an unfair advantage. Take all the anabolic steroids you want, it's not going to speed up your hand-eye coordination and enable you to see the ball better or swing a bat quicker. It allows you to get bigger and put on muscle mass via working out and excercising. So what? Unless you compete in weightlifting or bodybuilding how is that a competive advantage for highly skilled football or baseball players? Football players have always been big. Being bulky and massive won't help you as fat as hitting a baseball square. Second, everybody knows that the supplements and the substances will always be ahead of the testing. Test for anabolic steroids and the bulk of players are on to human growth hormones which can't be tested. Find a test for that and they're on to something else. Players who want to get an edge will find one, whatever the politics may be. What the NFL and other sports leagues should do is make it abundantly clear not what testing positive for steroids will do to your career but educate players and the public what such controversial substances will do your body and your life. If a player wants to assume the risk, that is up to them. Take your suspension Shawne, and get back in time for Denver and the playoffs. Don't play me for a fool and say you didn't know what it was. I don't have a problem with he did. I do with how he's handled it.
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS
(Reggie Bush was the ..2 player chosen in the 2006 NFL draft by the New Orleans Saints, after being widely regarded as the consensus ..1 pick by every expert in favor of Mario Williams by the Houston Texans)
Reggie Bush--RB
Stats for Week 7; None. Saints bye week
Saints are 5-1 all alone in first place in NFC South.
Mario Williams--DE
Stats for Week 7 againts Jacksonville Jaguars; 2 tackles, 1 sack of injured QB Byron Leftwich.
Congrats Houston you actually won a game 27-7 against a better team than you. At 2-4 and out of contention, better start working on next year's draft, so you don't f&..$ it up this time!
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
San Diego Chargers v. St. Louis Rams
Sporting Line: Bolts by 9.5
Breakdown: Two high powered offenses. One high powered defense. Even without Shawne Merriman the Chargers still have the better D but with him, we won't get caught with our pants down like in the final 2 minutes last week against KC, an inferior team we should have beaten.
My Pick: Bolts by 7
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Sporting Line: Orange Crush by 3
Breakdown: What gives when the league's best offense meets the stingiest defense? A great game hopefully. What Peyton is able to do against the Broncos D that has been rebuilt with the sole purpose of corralling the Colts should be must-see-NFL-tv, but this game could hinge on how effective Indy is at stopping Tatum Bell and the Broncos running game. As good as Denver is, they can't blow people out, so this one will stay close. Perhaps Indy K Adam Vinatieri will appear sometime late in the 4th Q with the game on the line and start to pay dividends for the Colts.
My Pick: Indy by 3
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sporting Line: Off (???)
Breakdown: Down RB Shawn Alexander the Seahawks are a one-dimensional passing team. Down QB Matt Hasselbeck their offense rivals Miami for ineptness. The Chiefs are down at QB too but they still have RB Larry Johnson, and as the San Diego Chargers know all too well, that is more than enough.
My Pick: Chiefs by 14. They better win or I'm the third to last person to miss out on $800 in my work pool.
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 14-5.
THOUGHTS ON FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUES
Ok, so I'm a football fan. You and I both know this. And baseball, and college sports, throw in my Lakers, Golf and Tiger, Tennis and Maria, I even got caught up in horse racing this year. I've never joined a fantasy league though. Never wanted too. I got signed up by my roommates in college senior year, but had the automatic draft and never really played in it. Maybe because it was free. I always kind of picutured fantasy fans as geeks and nerds who could never play the sport competitively themselves, the same types of guys who play computer games all day and wear glasses. Like that nerdy guy on ESPN (John Clayton I think is his name) who ex-QB Sean Salisbury loves to pick on. Until this year. And not because I started wearing glasses or stopped working out. Au contraire. A couple of guys I work with got me interested and the thought of winning the pot was too enticing to pass up. $40 buy in for the season X 8 people playing and the winner grosses $400. 'Just win baby'.
So the season is 1/3 over and I'm in 3rd place at 3-2. Not bad for a rookie. The top four make the playoffs, which is really week 15 and week 16 of the regular season. What I've figured out already is that most of the people who play fantasy football, not just in my league, but the cottage industry of writers, media and gurus who are the so-called "experts" may know a lot about football, but they know little about winning and next to nothing about arbitrage.
Arbitrage??
Picture this for a second; your typical sophisticated investor sitting at his computer who is smart enough to realize that the selling price for an item, say gasoline here in SoCal is not the same selling price as gasoline is in say, Texas (where lower fuel standards make it cheaper), or in say Western Europe (where higher fuel standards make it more expensive) even though the gallon of gasoline is the same exact gallon in one place as it is in another. That is what is known as arbitrage. The fancy term for buying and selling goods in one market at a different price than in another. Smart traders buy low in one market and sell high in another and pocket the difference.
What the hell does that have to do with fantasy football you say?
Simple.
Take a player, any player, at your required positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K and Defense). Conventional wisdom, and this is what my guys told me on draft day, was to pick players according to fantasy ranking, more or less. Only a fool would pick a rookie QB instead of Peyton Manning for example, because Peyton is a better player who over the course of the season will have better stats, thus earn more fantasy points for you. True, but the number of players out there who truly can be counted on to perform over the course of the season is a lot smaller than the experts realize. Guys get hurt (see Sean Alexander). Guys underperform (see Ben Roethlesberger). Guys overperform (see Rex Grossman). Any sports fan knows this and especially in a contact sport like football, injuries are a guarantee. The trick is to have a strong enough bench. I doubt though that most people will have the same roster at the end of the season that they did on draft day. What does that tell you?
That picking up guys along the way and letting guys go, via trades and waivers is the best way to not just improve your team, but to stay competitive. Why then have only four out of eight of us really been active in terms of updating our rosters. I've been the most active thus far. And I'm not just talking about shuffling your roster around so that your players who have their bye weeks sit on the bench for a week, I mean acquire and release players.
Good players.
Like the hedge fund trader who knows that gasoline sells higher in market A, but less in market B, my strategy has been to focus less on raw stats, which overvalue yards and touchdowns but undervalue wins and pick up and cut loose guys for the same week to take advantage of matchups in that players favor, even if he's not necessarily a guy you would initially pick on draft day. Give me a decent RB on a decent team (not named LT or LJ) who's facing a poor run defense team and I'll do fine. Give me a decent WR who catches for a stud QB than a supposedly great WR fetching balls from a rookie QB (Randy Moss).
Decent players are all over the place.
Like a hedge fund manager who sees value in one place but not another, you can fill out your roster with less than superstars and beat those who wonder why they're all-star team on paper is worth nothing more than that.
$400 sounds like a good return on a $45 dollar investment. The market rarely yields returns that good.
'Just win baby!'
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS
Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints RB and second overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5
9 carries for 23 yards, 2.6 average; 11 catches for 63 yards, 5.7 average; 1 punt return late in the game for 65 yards and the game winning TD. Saints over Bucs 24-21.
Saints 4-1, first place in NFC South
Mario Williams (Houston Texans DE and first overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft) had a bye week.
Texans 1-4, third place in AFC South looking up at 5-0 Indianapolis Colts
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
Chargers v. San Francisco 49'ers
The Line: Chargers by 9.5
Breakdown: Are you kidding me?? Granted, the Niners' are an improved offensive team this year but the Bolts' D rivals the Ravens and Bears for NFL supremacy anchored by sack master Sean Merriman. I remember a decade ago when these two teams met for the Super Bowl and it was SF who was the gold standard and the Chargers were the up and coming team. Funny, how those roles have reversed. If Philip Rivers keeps playing this well, fans like me will have nothing to bitch about all the way to the Super Bowl. Go Bolts!
My Pick: Chargers 38, San Francisco 13.
New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Line: Eagles by 3.
Breakdown: Hello people, the Saints are for real. How many more times do skeptics have to see it to believe it. Drew Brees spreads the ball around. Deuce pounds it up the middle. Joe Horn spreads the defense out. Marques Colston is the tallest TE I've ever seen and can outjump any LB and of course Reggie Bush is a threat from anywhere on the field. Philly can't expect to simply rush Brees all day and knock him silly like they did to Drew Bledsoe last week. I know the Eagles have the best offense in the league right now, but the Saints can get after Donovan McNabb and play defense too. It's not a football game in New Orleans. It's a revival service!
My Pick: Saints by 3
Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders
The Line: Denver by 14.5
Breakdown: that's too generous . . . to Oakland. Matched up against a team that can shut down the run and has only allowed 1 TD all season the Raiders will be lucky to get more than a couple of field goals. No TD's for overrated Randy Moss. No more catches for problem child Joey Porter.
My Pick: Broncos by 21. Denver 27, Oakland 6.
Contenders & Pretenders
Contenders; NY Jets, Pretenders; Miami Dolphins
Contenders; Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars & San Diego Chargers, Pretenders; defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers
Contenders; Philadelphia Eagles, Pretenders; Washington Redskins & NY Giants
Contenders; New Orleans Saints, St. Louis Rams, Pretenders; Arizona Cardinals
Better than Advertised; Chicago Bears who can now play both sides of the field and not just defense, the Indinapolis Colts who have been able to win without much of a running game, and the New England Patriots who lose players every year and still outcoach and outprepare every other team week in and week out and have yet to lose consecutive games for the past four seasons.
Worse than Advertised; Tennesse Titans, Houston Texans and the Evil Oakland Raiders (0-4) on their way to 0-16??
Playoff & Super Bowl Pick Adjustments
AFC West--Denver Broncos (then), Denver Broncos (now)
AFC North--Cincinnati Bengals (then), Baltimore Ravens (now)
AFC South--Indianapolis Colts (then), Indianapolis Colts (now)
AFC East--Miami Dolphins (then), New England Patriots (now)
AFC Wild Cards--New England Patriots & Kansas City Chiefs (then), San Diego Chargers & Cincinnati Bengals (now)
AFC Champs--Indianapolis Colts (then), Indianapolis Colts (now)
AFC Chumps--Houston Texans (then), Tennesse Titans & Oakland Raiders (now)
NFC West--Seattle Seahawks (then), St. Louis Rams (now)
NFC North--Chicago Bears (then), Chicago Bears (now)
NFC South--Carolina Panthers (then), New Orleans Saints (now)
NFC East--Dallas Cowboys (then), Philadelphia Eagles (now)
NFC Wild Cards--Arizona Cardinals & NY Giants (then), Atlanta Falcons & Seattle Seahawks (now)
NFC Champs--Carolina Panthers (then), Chicago Bears (now)
NFC Chumps--Detroit Lions (then), Detroit Lions (now)
Super Bowl XLI Champions--Indinapolis Colts (then), Indianapolis Colts (now)
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS, WEEK FOUR
Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints 3-1) v. Carolina Panthers
11 carries, 22 yards rushing, 4 catches for 48 yards, 1 fumble lost
Season: 45 carries for 147 yards, 3.3 avg, 23 catches for 187 yards, 8.1 avg. 0 TDs, 1 fumble
Mario Williams (Houston Texans 1-3) v. Miami Dolphins
2 tackles, 1.5 sacks.
Season; 10 tackles, 1.5 sacks
Williams had his best game yet in beating an underachieving team, Bush his worst game in coming back and almost beating a tough divisional opponent on the road. Williams team is 1-3, Bush 3-1. The Houston Texans are out of the divisional race and already playing out the schedule. The Saints are one of the biggest early season surprises and not going away any time soon. The Texans made a huge mistake in drafting Williams ..1 over Reggie Bush.
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
Chargers v. Steelers
The Line; Chargers by 3.
My Pick; Chargers by 10.
Broncos v. Ravens
The Line; Broncos by 4.
My Pick; Broncos by 3.
Eagles v. Cowboys
The Line; Eagles by 1.5.
My Pick; Eagles by 3.
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