Houston Texans @ MindSay 
Category: Sports
THOUGHTS ON WEEK 7 IN THE NFL
So it's not just major league baseball that has a problem with steroids. Pity, poor Shawne Merriman and my San Diego Chargers. While most of us have no idea what nandrolone is and when pressed probably couldn't even name three actual steroids, it's become the evil buzz word to be avoided at all costs. Mention the word steroids and you are guilty until proven innocent and assumed a cheater. While I don't believe that Merriman didn't know what the supplements he was taking contained I personally don't care what he took. He shouldn't be suspended because he did nothing wrong. Neither allegedly did Barry Bonds, nor Mark McGwire. Steroids is a word when the busybodies who run sports leagues and get hauled in front of Congressional committees have to label as bad and wrong and cheating without actually making the case for how it skews the quality of play and gives one an unfair advantage. Take all the anabolic steroids you want, it's not going to speed up your hand-eye coordination and enable you to see the ball better or swing a bat quicker. It allows you to get bigger and put on muscle mass via working out and excercising. So what? Unless you compete in weightlifting or bodybuilding how is that a competive advantage for highly skilled football or baseball players? Football players have always been big. Being bulky and massive won't help you as fat as hitting a baseball square. Second, everybody knows that the supplements and the substances will always be ahead of the testing. Test for anabolic steroids and the bulk of players are on to human growth hormones which can't be tested. Find a test for that and they're on to something else. Players who want to get an edge will find one, whatever the politics may be. What the NFL and other sports leagues should do is make it abundantly clear not what testing positive for steroids will do to your career but educate players and the public what such controversial substances will do your body and your life. If a player wants to assume the risk, that is up to them. Take your suspension Shawne, and get back in time for Denver and the playoffs. Don't play me for a fool and say you didn't know what it was. I don't have a problem with he did. I do with how he's handled it.
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS
(Reggie Bush was the ..2 player chosen in the 2006 NFL draft by the New Orleans Saints, after being widely regarded as the consensus ..1 pick by every expert in favor of Mario Williams by the Houston Texans)
Reggie Bush--RB
Stats for Week 7; None. Saints bye week
Saints are 5-1 all alone in first place in NFC South.
Mario Williams--DE
Stats for Week 7 againts Jacksonville Jaguars; 2 tackles, 1 sack of injured QB Byron Leftwich.
Congrats Houston you actually won a game 27-7 against a better team than you. At 2-4 and out of contention, better start working on next year's draft, so you don't f&..$ it up this time!
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
San Diego Chargers v. St. Louis Rams
Sporting Line: Bolts by 9.5
Breakdown: Two high powered offenses. One high powered defense. Even without Shawne Merriman the Chargers still have the better D but with him, we won't get caught with our pants down like in the final 2 minutes last week against KC, an inferior team we should have beaten.
My Pick: Bolts by 7
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Sporting Line: Orange Crush by 3
Breakdown: What gives when the league's best offense meets the stingiest defense? A great game hopefully. What Peyton is able to do against the Broncos D that has been rebuilt with the sole purpose of corralling the Colts should be must-see-NFL-tv, but this game could hinge on how effective Indy is at stopping Tatum Bell and the Broncos running game. As good as Denver is, they can't blow people out, so this one will stay close. Perhaps Indy K Adam Vinatieri will appear sometime late in the 4th Q with the game on the line and start to pay dividends for the Colts.
My Pick: Indy by 3
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sporting Line: Off (???)
Breakdown: Down RB Shawn Alexander the Seahawks are a one-dimensional passing team. Down QB Matt Hasselbeck their offense rivals Miami for ineptness. The Chiefs are down at QB too but they still have RB Larry Johnson, and as the San Diego Chargers know all too well, that is more than enough.
My Pick: Chiefs by 14. They better win or I'm the third to last person to miss out on $800 in my work pool.
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 14-5.
Current mood: 
happy
Category: Sports
THOUGHTS ON WEEK 6 IN THE NFL
I usually reserve this weekly post to all things NFL but the brawl that took place on Saturday's college game between the University of Miami and Florida International University marks not only another low point for chronically overrated Miami but should be an embarassment to all of college football. What bothered me most was not the herd mentality that players displayed in joining in with their teammates but that the officials and coaches lacked the ability to take control. For a few minutes it became a gang fight in football pads. And unlike the ugly brawl that marred the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers game two years ago this incident seemed to delght the fans who were there. Miami spirit squad members ran around the field waving the Hurricane flags as if this was a sanctioned UFC bout and a good many of the fans in the stands were on their feet cheering them on like a bunch of junior high school kids rallying around two kids going at it. What's done is done and the image of Miami once again of an outlaw college football program that has no standards with regards to the types of players it recruits, preparing them to become Oakland Raiders one day. The University President has come out in force and several of the players involved have been suspended; for one game, the easy game against Duke this week back in time for nationally ranked Georgia Tech and all will be forgotten. Tell you what they should do. Suspend each player involved in actual fighting and furthering the melee for the remainder of the season. Fire Coach Coker, who hasn't exactly done a good job this year now. All of those players involved in inciting more violence or going above and beyond simple pushing and shoving, like kicking opposing players on the ground and throwing helmets at opposing players heads should not only be suspended from the team for life, but should be expelled from the University. The Dade County district attorney should file criminal assault and battery charges, and inciting a riot. Send the message that such conduct has consequences beyond overnite ratings. ESPN should stop replaying bits of it on tv. It was a news story the first time, every time hence, treats it not as such but as entertainment and a spectacle to watch. Of course that means drawing a line between competitive sport and entertainment, and we all know in todays 24/7 global satellite media culture there's enough time and space to show everything. Over and over again until the next ever more outrageous clip of video comes along and we do it all over again.
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS
(Reggie Bush was the ..2 player chosen in the 2006 NFL draft by the New Orleans Saints, after being widely regarded as the consensus ..1 pick by every expert in favor of Mario Williams by the Houston Texans)
Reggie Bush--RB
Stats for Week 6 against the Philadelphia Eagles; 11 carries for 26 yards, 4 catches for 35 yards, 3 punt returns for 29 yards, 0 touchdowns
Breakdown: 18 total touches for 90 yards total in helping Saints beat Philly as time expired by a field goal 27-24. Hasn't had that monster game we saw over and over again at USC, but has shown flashes of it when he has the ball in the open field and is a legitimate threat every time he touches the ball.
Impact: He makes it tough on opposing defenses because he can line up in the backfield, in the slot, out wide and gives N.O. so many options and formations that allows Drew Brees to make plays. It's no coincidence that WR Joe Horn and RB Deuce McCallister are having solid years in no small part because of what Reggue brings to the table, and I imagine as more and more defenses scheme up ways to stop Horn and McCallister, Bush will get more opportunities. He makes others better and that in turn will make him better. After going 3-13 all of last year the Saints are certainly better and more than just a feel-good story this year at 5-1 and in first place in the NFC South. The Saints are a bona-fide playoff team and will be playing this January.
Mario Williams--DE
Stats for Week 6 against the Dallas Cowboys; 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries, 0 interceptions.
Breakdown: Houston lost to Dallas 34-6. After leading Cowboys 6-3 at halftime the Texans couldn't stop the run, couldn't pressure Bledsoe and couldn't contain Terrell Owens, who had his best game yet as a Cowboy.
Impact: Texans are 1-5, tied for last place in AFC South with Tennessee and getting worse each week. Is it basketball season yet in South Texas cuz' this team's heading nowhere and Mario Williams is no help.
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sporting Line: San Diego by 5.5
Breakdown: C'mon they demolished an improving San Franciso team last week scoring 48 points! They have the best RB in the game (LT not Larry Johnson), the best TE in the game (Gates not Gonzalez), the best front 7 outside of Chicago and an impressive young QB. KC is beat up and one dimensional. Sure it's a divisional game and on the road so I'll give KC the first half to hang around, but the Bolts have too many weapons, the Chiefs too few. The Bolts put too much pressure on opposing QBs and force mistakes and can stop the run. Onwards to 5-1.
My Pick: San Diego by 13; 33-20.
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns
Sporting Line: Denver by 4.5
Breakdown: Denver (that other really good team in the AFC West) isn't explosive or sexy, but they have allowed only 1 defensive TD through 5 games and given up the fewest points. Cleveland is a game opponent with some fight in them (the Oakland Raiders they aren't), but can't establish the run on offense or attack with a vertical passing game. Denver's D and ball-control offense will take command of this game even if the score looks less impressive.
My Pick: Denver by 14; 20-6.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sporting Line: Pittsburgh by 2.5
Breakdown: These are two teams headed in opposite directions. Pittsburgh's QB Ben Roethlisburger seems like he's finally emerged from his early season struggles and they have been able to run the ball again. And play pretty good defense too. Atlanta is fun to watch with QB Michael Vick and RB Warrick Dunn but is largely one dimensional. Pittsburgh is clearly getting better and about to hit its stride. Atlanta is not the same team that started 2-0.
My Pick: Pittsburgh by 4; 17-13.
Last Week: 3-0
Season: 13-3.
THOUGHTS ON FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUES
Ok, so I'm a football fan. You and I both know this. And baseball, and college sports, throw in my Lakers, Golf and Tiger, Tennis and Maria, I even got caught up in horse racing this year. I've never joined a fantasy league though. Never wanted too. I got signed up by my roommates in college senior year, but had the automatic draft and never really played in it. Maybe because it was free. I always kind of picutured fantasy fans as geeks and nerds who could never play the sport competitively themselves, the same types of guys who play computer games all day and wear glasses. Like that nerdy guy on ESPN (John Clayton I think is his name) who ex-QB Sean Salisbury loves to pick on. Until this year. And not because I started wearing glasses or stopped working out. Au contraire. A couple of guys I work with got me interested and the thought of winning the pot was too enticing to pass up. $40 buy in for the season X 8 people playing and the winner grosses $400. 'Just win baby'.
So the season is 1/3 over and I'm in 3rd place at 3-2. Not bad for a rookie. The top four make the playoffs, which is really week 15 and week 16 of the regular season. What I've figured out already is that most of the people who play fantasy football, not just in my league, but the cottage industry of writers, media and gurus who are the so-called "experts" may know a lot about football, but they know little about winning and next to nothing about arbitrage.
Arbitrage??
Picture this for a second; your typical sophisticated investor sitting at his computer who is smart enough to realize that the selling price for an item, say gasoline here in SoCal is not the same selling price as gasoline is in say, Texas (where lower fuel standards make it cheaper), or in say Western Europe (where higher fuel standards make it more expensive) even though the gallon of gasoline is the same exact gallon in one place as it is in another. That is what is known as arbitrage. The fancy term for buying and selling goods in one market at a different price than in another. Smart traders buy low in one market and sell high in another and pocket the difference.
What the hell does that have to do with fantasy football you say?
Simple.
Take a player, any player, at your required positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K and Defense). Conventional wisdom, and this is what my guys told me on draft day, was to pick players according to fantasy ranking, more or less. Only a fool would pick a rookie QB instead of Peyton Manning for example, because Peyton is a better player who over the course of the season will have better stats, thus earn more fantasy points for you. True, but the number of players out there who truly can be counted on to perform over the course of the season is a lot smaller than the experts realize. Guys get hurt (see Sean Alexander). Guys underperform (see Ben Roethlesberger). Guys overperform (see Rex Grossman). Any sports fan knows this and especially in a contact sport like football, injuries are a guarantee. The trick is to have a strong enough bench. I doubt though that most people will have the same roster at the end of the season that they did on draft day. What does that tell you?
That picking up guys along the way and letting guys go, via trades and waivers is the best way to not just improve your team, but to stay competitive. Why then have only four out of eight of us really been active in terms of updating our rosters. I've been the most active thus far. And I'm not just talking about shuffling your roster around so that your players who have their bye weeks sit on the bench for a week, I mean acquire and release players.
Good players.
Like the hedge fund trader who knows that gasoline sells higher in market A, but less in market B, my strategy has been to focus less on raw stats, which overvalue yards and touchdowns but undervalue wins and pick up and cut loose guys for the same week to take advantage of matchups in that players favor, even if he's not necessarily a guy you would initially pick on draft day. Give me a decent RB on a decent team (not named LT or LJ) who's facing a poor run defense team and I'll do fine. Give me a decent WR who catches for a stud QB than a supposedly great WR fetching balls from a rookie QB (Randy Moss).
Decent players are all over the place.
Like a hedge fund manager who sees value in one place but not another, you can fill out your roster with less than superstars and beat those who wonder why they're all-star team on paper is worth nothing more than that.
$400 sounds like a good return on a $45 dollar investment. The market rarely yields returns that good.
'Just win baby!'
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS
Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints RB and second overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5
9 carries for 23 yards, 2.6 average; 11 catches for 63 yards, 5.7 average; 1 punt return late in the game for 65 yards and the game winning TD. Saints over Bucs 24-21.
Saints 4-1, first place in NFC South
Mario Williams (Houston Texans DE and first overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft) had a bye week.
Texans 1-4, third place in AFC South looking up at 5-0 Indianapolis Colts
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
Chargers v. San Francisco 49'ers
The Line: Chargers by 9.5
Breakdown: Are you kidding me?? Granted, the Niners' are an improved offensive team this year but the Bolts' D rivals the Ravens and Bears for NFL supremacy anchored by sack master Sean Merriman. I remember a decade ago when these two teams met for the Super Bowl and it was SF who was the gold standard and the Chargers were the up and coming team. Funny, how those roles have reversed. If Philip Rivers keeps playing this well, fans like me will have nothing to bitch about all the way to the Super Bowl. Go Bolts!
My Pick: Chargers 38, San Francisco 13.
New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Line: Eagles by 3.
Breakdown: Hello people, the Saints are for real. How many more times do skeptics have to see it to believe it. Drew Brees spreads the ball around. Deuce pounds it up the middle. Joe Horn spreads the defense out. Marques Colston is the tallest TE I've ever seen and can outjump any LB and of course Reggie Bush is a threat from anywhere on the field. Philly can't expect to simply rush Brees all day and knock him silly like they did to Drew Bledsoe last week. I know the Eagles have the best offense in the league right now, but the Saints can get after Donovan McNabb and play defense too. It's not a football game in New Orleans. It's a revival service!
My Pick: Saints by 3
Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders
The Line: Denver by 14.5
Breakdown: that's too generous . . . to Oakland. Matched up against a team that can shut down the run and has only allowed 1 TD all season the Raiders will be lucky to get more than a couple of field goals. No TD's for overrated Randy Moss. No more catches for problem child Joey Porter.
My Pick: Broncos by 21. Denver 27, Oakland 6.
Contenders & Pretenders
Contenders; NY Jets, Pretenders; Miami Dolphins
Contenders; Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars & San Diego Chargers, Pretenders; defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers
Contenders; Philadelphia Eagles, Pretenders; Washington Redskins & NY Giants
Contenders; New Orleans Saints, St. Louis Rams, Pretenders; Arizona Cardinals
Better than Advertised; Chicago Bears who can now play both sides of the field and not just defense, the Indinapolis Colts who have been able to win without much of a running game, and the New England Patriots who lose players every year and still outcoach and outprepare every other team week in and week out and have yet to lose consecutive games for the past four seasons.
Worse than Advertised; Tennesse Titans, Houston Texans and the Evil Oakland Raiders (0-4) on their way to 0-16??
Playoff & Super Bowl Pick Adjustments
AFC West--Denver Broncos (then), Denver Broncos (now)
AFC North--Cincinnati Bengals (then), Baltimore Ravens (now)
AFC South--Indianapolis Colts (then), Indianapolis Colts (now)
AFC East--Miami Dolphins (then), New England Patriots (now)
AFC Wild Cards--New England Patriots & Kansas City Chiefs (then), San Diego Chargers & Cincinnati Bengals (now)
AFC Champs--Indianapolis Colts (then), Indianapolis Colts (now)
AFC Chumps--Houston Texans (then), Tennesse Titans & Oakland Raiders (now)
NFC West--Seattle Seahawks (then), St. Louis Rams (now)
NFC North--Chicago Bears (then), Chicago Bears (now)
NFC South--Carolina Panthers (then), New Orleans Saints (now)
NFC East--Dallas Cowboys (then), Philadelphia Eagles (now)
NFC Wild Cards--Arizona Cardinals & NY Giants (then), Atlanta Falcons & Seattle Seahawks (now)
NFC Champs--Carolina Panthers (then), Chicago Bears (now)
NFC Chumps--Detroit Lions (then), Detroit Lions (now)
Super Bowl XLI Champions--Indinapolis Colts (then), Indianapolis Colts (now)
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS, WEEK FOUR
Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints 3-1) v. Carolina Panthers
11 carries, 22 yards rushing, 4 catches for 48 yards, 1 fumble lost
Season: 45 carries for 147 yards, 3.3 avg, 23 catches for 187 yards, 8.1 avg. 0 TDs, 1 fumble
Mario Williams (Houston Texans 1-3) v. Miami Dolphins
2 tackles, 1.5 sacks.
Season; 10 tackles, 1.5 sacks
Williams had his best game yet in beating an underachieving team, Bush his worst game in coming back and almost beating a tough divisional opponent on the road. Williams team is 1-3, Bush 3-1. The Houston Texans are out of the divisional race and already playing out the schedule. The Saints are one of the biggest early season surprises and not going away any time soon. The Texans made a huge mistake in drafting Williams ..1 over Reggie Bush.
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
Chargers v. Steelers
The Line; Chargers by 3.
My Pick; Chargers by 10.
Broncos v. Ravens
The Line; Broncos by 4.
My Pick; Broncos by 3.
Eagles v. Cowboys
The Line; Eagles by 1.5.
My Pick; Eagles by 3.
THOUGHTS ON WEEK THREE IN THE NFL
Guys shouldn't have to go to the hospital before they figure out something is wrong. Nobody knows when Chris Simms (Tampa Bay QB) actually suffered his spleen injury but given all the symptoms doctors should be partial to the health and safety of the players first and not the teams who want to continue to play him until the game is over, or his head is beaten to a pulp.
Terrell Owens needs help. Not on his finger and not with his mouth but psychological help. Arrogence and ego are two things he certainly possesses, and likes to possess, but when reports start getting out that you attempted to commit suicide by overdosing on pain medication, a normal person I have to believe would get a little angry and come out pleading his case, like an innocent man on trial; not bask in the attention of another soap opera like T.O. did and then smile on cue for the television camera. The NFL should not clear him to play until he makes it very clear that he understands such behavior is not celebratory but pathological, and before he hurts himself.
The obituaries about Brett Favre being old and washed up are a little premature. 400 career TD passes makes him second all-time to Dan Marino.
The uncomfortable body language from Tom Brady seems to indicate even Mr. All America is human and needs some help on the offensive side of the ball if the Patriots are to remain an elite team in the AFC.
Somebody want to tell the New York Giants the whistle blows for 4 quarters and not just the 4th quarter.
Houston is still the worst team in the league when even they can make Mark Brunell look that good.
Carson Palmer is back. Ben Roethlesberger is not yet.
The Bengals look like the team with the most upside, ready to take the reins as the team to beat, the Steelers like a team with a whole lot of question marks and not likely to repeat.
I'm more and more impressed with Rex Grossman every time I see him. He's no Peyton Manning, but neither is he simply a manager in the mold of a Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson whose main responsibility is to not screw things up. The NFL is more fun when the Chicago Bears are one of the better teams.
REGGIE BUSH v. MARIO WILLIAMS
Reggie Bush v. Atlanta Falcons (then 2-0)
13 carries for 53 yards, a respectable 4.1 average. 4 catches for 19 yards. O TD's. He hasn't broke one yet in the NFL but it's only a matter of time. Every time he touches the ball your eyes are fixed on him to see what he will do. More important, 3 games into his rookie season he hasn't forced the issue yet or tried to make a big play out of nothing and turn the ball over. Can be lethal even as a decoy, like the double reverse where he handed the ball off that led to their second TD. Defenses already are very aware of him and keying on him as one of those guys you have to stop. Has contributed in all three games and the Saints offense, in large part because of him, is noticably better this year. Most important, the Saints are 3-0.
Mario Williams v. Washington Reskins (then 0-2)
3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 forced fumbles, 0 interceptions in 31-15 loss to lowly Redskins.
The Texans are now 0-3 on the season and going nowhere fast.
SUNDAY TRIFECTA
CHARGERS-RAVENS
Hopefully coming off a bye week won't slow the Bolts down This game features one of the league's most high-powered offenses against the stingiest defense. Something has to give when our 2-0 record meets Baltimore at 3-0. I know the saying, good defense stops a good offense and the home team has the edge, but Shawn Merriman makes the Charger defense no pushover either and the Ravens still are struggling to execute their offense consistently. Bolts by 3.
PATRIOTS-BENGALS
Who do you root for when the All-American boy squares off against the Comeback Kid? I can't root against Tom Brady but want so much for Carson Palmer to continue his comeback from injury and lead Cincinnati deep into the playoffs. This is one of three games this year that features high powered QBs with a flair for the dramatic on the NFL calendar (Indy-New England and indy-Cincinnati being the other two) that for my money are must see. F*%@ ball control and low scoring defensive battles, give me a shoot out with the over/under at 60. At 2-1 and coming off a loss, the Pats need this game more than the 3-0 Bengals, but the Bengals have more to prove besides just winning in Pittsburgh. I'm pulling for OT and whoever has the ball last to win.
SEAHAWKS-BEARS
Early season game with playoff implications. Reigning NFC champs against most likely challengers this season. Added bonus that this game is in windy Chicago instead of overcast Seattle where the Bears will have the home field advantage. And oh yes, what ever will Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks offense do without NFL MVP Sean Alexander in the backfield? Run more plays with 4 wideouts and throw the ball 40 times a game. Aren't they glad Deion Branch arrived just in time at WR. Won't be enough. Against a mediocre defense, Seattle could probably get away with it but not against Da' Bears. Chicago by 7.
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