From nothing in February 2005 to 8,000 video uploads a day, Youtube is every internet starup company's  dream. They opened all the doors and windows and the whole world joined the party. And it's a huge party at 16 terabytes a day. But, how long can the party last?

  "We don't have a monopoly, we have a market-share."       Steve Ballmer

  Nineteen months ago Chad Hurley and Steven Chen  flipped the switch on for Youtube. With a $11.5 million dollar investment from Sequoia Partners, the mega-video-file-sharing service was born. Keep in mind that essentially that's all Youtube is - a file-sharing site. It's kind of a video-orgy where nearly anything and everything goes. Remember Napster and Kazaa? The similarities, I believe, are soon to increase when the "L" and "M" words surface. L = litigation and M = monopoly.

 

  It is amazing that a company which was losing money could sell for $1.65 billion. Two weeks ago Mark Cuban said "Only a moron would buy Youtube." Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks was referring to Universal Studios heat over Youtube's copyright infringements. In other words, why would you buy a non-profiting company about to enter into expensive litigation? Market-share baby, market-share! Acquisition of market-share is the lifeblood of every monopoly. Morons are millionaires too.

 

  Genius is not a requirement of today's business models. In fact the more inane and philistine the product the better. A 16 terabyte a day orgy doesn't require a discussion of philosophy or quantum-physics. However, it might be a good idea to wise up before the party ends. You only have to look at what Yahoo did with its acquisition of Broadcast.com from Mark Cuban to get an idea of what will become of Youtube. I predict that within a year there will be a cover-charge for the vid-orgy, that and litigation will put a serious damper on the party. Better get your tube-on while you still can.

 

--- Also, look for this site to get ingested either by litigation or a buyout.

 

 

AND SPEAKING OF VIDEOS, PLEASE TRY AND SEE THIS ONE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pablo

©2006