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1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB, Louisiana St.
I would like to make it clear that I do not think this is the right pick for them. I think Brady Quinn will be the better quarterback in the long run as well as immediately. Russell strikes me as one who has always gotten by purely on natural ability. That is the sort of player that can't hang in the NFL because it requires so much more study, work, and discipline. Unfortunately for Raider fans, these traits are of little importance to Al Davis.
2. Detroit Lions: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech.
Johnson will be selected second. It could be the Lions who take him, but probably not. What is most likely is that they will trade with someone like Tampa Bay or Minnesota. However, the Lions could draft him in order to trade him after the draft. They could do a lot of things, but Johnson will be picked at #2.
3. Cleveland Browns: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
It isn't often when a rookie quarterback is a team's best hope for instant success, but this will be the case when Cleveland drafts Quinn. Supposedly the organization likes Charlie Frye, but Quinn is better now and has more potential to be better in the future. Also, coach Romeo Crennel will be under a lot of pressure to win this season. Quinn gives him his best chance.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
This will be a tough pick. The Bucs could either go for a defensive lineman like Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson, or Alan Branch, but their offensive line has been weak for a while and they need someone to protect all the quarterbacks they have amassed. Even though the Bucs have been known for their defense, I think Gruden's offensive mindset will be the deciding factor.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
The Cards would ove for Thomas to fall to them, but with him off the board, they need to address the defensive line. There are three prospects they could choose here (Adams and Branch being the other two), but Anderson gets the edge. Adams is a one-dimensional pass-rusher, which the Cards already have with Bertrand Berry, and Branch has a questionable motor and work ethic, something that won't be tolerated by new head coach Ken Wisenhunt, who coached under Bill Cowher. Anderson can play the run as well as rush the passer and has been considered a hard-worker.
6. Washington Redskins: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
This seems like the perfect fit. Washington needs a pass-rusher from the end position. Adams is probably the best pass-rusher in the draft. (In real life, I expect this pick to be traded because Washington has given away so many picks in ridiculous trades from previous off-seasons. If/when this pick is traded, I expect Adrian Peterson to be the pick. Unlike the Calvin Johnson situation at #2, there is no way Washington would choose Peterson if they kept this pick.)
7. Minnesota Vikings: LaRon Landry, S, Louisiana St.
This might be the worst scenario for the Vikings. They would like to get one of the top ends, but they are both gone. They would like one of the top quarterbacks, but they are gone. They would like a corner or wide receiver, but none are worthy of being drafted this high. Ultimately, I don't see them picking here. They might move up or down, but they won't pick here. However, since I need to pick someone for them, I think they will go with Landry. He is the second best player available (after Peterson) and they will soon need a replacement to the aging Darren Sharper.
8. Atlanta Falcons (from Houston): Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
This is the best situation new head coach Bobby Petrino could hope for. Warrick Dunn is aging and youngster Jerious Norwood is nothing more than a good complementary back. Peterson gives them a powerful runner who can carry the ball 25 times per game.
9. Miami Dolphins: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
Miami likes to run a hybrid defense, using both the 3-4 and the 4-3 at times. Branch will fit into the scheme as a nose tackle or end in the 3-4 and as a tackle in the 4-3.
10. Houston Texans (from Atlanta): Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Levi Brown, an offensive tackle, deserves serious consideration here, but Okoye deserves the choice. Brown isn't the type of athletic lineman coach Gary Kubiak likes, and there will be plenty of those in the later rounds. Okoye fills a need at DT and also completes the foundation of their run defense for at least 10 years. (Remember, they drafted DE Mario Williams first last year and MLB DeMeco Ryans won defensive Rookie of the Year.)
11. San Francisco 49ers: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
This really is an easy choice. Carriker's work ethic and intensity are unquestioned and he brings the type of nasty, physical attitude Mike Nolan loves. On top of that is the fact that he is a prototypical 3-4 defensive end (a position few are naturally able to play), and the fact that the Niners need an end. This should be a no-brainer.
12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, MLB, Ole Miss
The Bills have other needs that could be filled with this pick, such as OT or CB, but getting a versatile linebacker is at the top of the list. They already lost MLB London Fletcher-Baker to free agency and now they are trying to trade OLB Takeo Spikes. Even though he has the athleticism to play outside, Willis is a pure MLB in the 4-3 and should be able to step in right away and man the middle of the field.
13. St. Louis Rams: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
The Rams struggled defensively last season, yet their offseason thus far has been focused on offense. My only assumption is that they are planning to address defense in the draft and Hall is a good way to start. The Rams only have three corners on their roster and already lost starter Travis Fisher to free agency. Hall will be able to pair with last years first-round pick, Tye Hill, who has a very solid rookie season, and secure the corner spots for the future.
14. Carolina Panthers: Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
Carolina's offensive line struggled last year with injuries and players playing out of position. Brown will be able to step in and start right away and left tackle, allowing the rest of the line to move back to their natural positions. This will immediately help the passing and running attacks that struggled last season.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida St.
Timmons isn't a very sexy pick, but he would be a great start for the Mike Tomlin era. Timmons has experience as a strongside OLB, weakside OLB, and pass rushing end on third downs. All of this was in a 4-3 defense, but those skills should translate well to playing OLB Pittsburgh's established 3-4. Why this is such a good pick for them is that Tomlin wants to gradually move the Steelers to a 4-3 and Timmons can play both.
16. Green Bay Packers: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Everyone has the Packers making this pick and there is a reason. Lynch is a great value at this spot in the first round, he is capable of carrying a full-time load as a featured back, and the Packers need a running back who offers those things.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
The Jags lost their starting FS to Seattle in free agency and SS Donovin Darius has extremely limited coverage skills. Nelson is a prototypical FS who can cover deep over the top or man-to-man on the slot receiver or tight end.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (FL)
The Bengals don't really need a tight end. Well, they do in the regard that they don't have a very good one, but their offense obviously does well in spite of this. Nonethelss, Olsen is the top tight end prospect and would provide a fast, athletic target over the middle that Palmer hasn't had before.
19. Tennessee Titans: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Louisiana St.
Tennessee would feel like a kid in a candy store in this situation. None of the top receivers, aside from Johnson of course, have been taken yet and the Titans get their choice. There will be some speculation that they will take Dwayne Jarrett because offensive coordinator Norm Chow coached him at USC, or that they should take local prospect Robert Meachem from Tennessee, but Bowe is the best fit. He is a big, smart receiver with sure hands who is like a more athletic version of Drew Bennett, who was their best receiver before leaving for St. Louis this offseason. Jarrett is those things too, but Bowe is more athletic.
20. New York Giants: Darrell Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
Revis give the Giants great value and fit at this spot. He is a big, physical corner who fills strong against the run. That fits perfectly in the Giants zone-based coverage scheme.
21. Denver Broncos: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
The Broncos need a pass-rushing end and there will be some good picks for them here. Even though some would argue Anthony Spencer or Jarvis Moss is better, Johnson is a better fit for the Broncos. Denver likes lineman who are able to anchor against the run to allow the linebackers to run free. Spencer and Moss are too small for that, whereas Johnson can anchor against the run and get after the quarterback.
22. Dallas Cowboys: Jarvis Moss, OLB/DE, Florida
They already have DeMarcus Ware, but the Cowboys need to get more pressure on the quarterback. Greg Ellis was unable to successfully transition to OLB after playing DE for his first 8 years in the league, but appears to have the athleticism, and clean slate, to learn the new position quickly. The only question is whether they take Moss or Anthony Spencer.
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
The Chiefs need a receiver. They have a lot to choose from, and Meachem will eventually be the pick. Herm Edwards needs a speedy wideout who can stretch the field and, among the best remaining receivers, Meachem is the best bet. Ginn obviously deserves consideration if a team is looking for speed, but he is just too risky this early considering the fact that he has been unable to work out due to a foot injury (probably the worst type for a receiver whose game is predicated on speed) for almost three months now.
24. New England (from Seattle): Anthony Spencer, OLB/DE, Purdue
While it is true that they signed Adalius Thomas to play OLB, they need two and Spencer can fill the other role. Rosevelt Colvin, the incumbent starter, has never been productive in the 3-4 since coming to New England, Ted Bruschi and Mike Vrabel are frequently hurt and Junior Seau shouldn't be back next season. Drafting Spencer would bring a lot of energy to this group as well as adding an important piece for the future.
25. Ney York Jets: Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn
Mangini is going to continue building his offensive line by adding Grubbs to last year's first-round picks D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. Grubbs is a powerful, tough lineman who even played a little tight end when he first got to Auburn. This isn't a sexy pick, but it helps to secure the foundation of the offense.
26. Philadelphia Eagles: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
Houston is an unpolished corner who has the strength and speed to match-up man-to-man against almost anyone in the league. His main problem is with play recognition and field awareness, but the Eagles already have two starting corners, so they will be able to start Houston as a nickel back until he is mentally ready to start.
27. New Orleans Saints: Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
Wright could be the best corner in this draft. His only problem is that teams are concerned with his character. Based on talent alone, Wright would deserve consideration in the top 15 picks, but no team wants to commit that much to a questionable individual. The Saints are a team that I could see taking a chance. Head coach Sean Payton learned from Bill Parcells, who always accepted challenging players so long as they gave 100% to the team.
28. New England Patriots: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
Ross is a great fit in New England. In addition to being a corner with a knack for big plays, he is a good enough tackler to play safety and can return kicks.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio St.
At first glance this might not seem like a good fit, but hear me out. Head coach Brian Billick is thought of as a great offensive because of his time in Minnesota as their offensive coordinator. Since arriving in Baltimore, that reputation has failed to materialize on the field because he hasn't had anyone to stretch the field vertically. In Minnesota he had Randy Moss and Chris Carter complimenting each other's skill sets beautifully. Billick will be able to recreate that explosive Minnesota offense by drafting Ginn and pairing him with Derrick Mason, Steve McNair, and the newly-acquired Willis McGahee.
30. San Diego Chargers: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, Southern Cal
San Diego is sorely lacking in the receiver department and Jarrett gives them a talented, local prospect that can help balance an offense that was too run-heavy. Norv Turner loves big, physical receivers like he had in Dallas with Michael Irvin, and Jarrett fits that role perfectly.
31. Chicago Bears: Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn St.
The Bears will eventually realize that they can't keep Lance Briggs at a price the notoriously cheap organization deems reasonable. Posluszny can step in as a starter right away if necessary and brings the toughness that Chicago looks for in its players.
32. Indianapolis Colts: Justin Harell, DT, Tennessee
The Colts run defense was terrible last year. Yes, they played well in the playoffs once Bob Sanders came back, but defensive tackle was exposed as a major weak spot. They traded for Anthony McFarland, which paid immediate dividends, but he is just a run-stopper without posing a threat to get to the quarterback. Harell is athletic and quick and should be a great pair for McFarland.
As always, comments, critiques and suggested topics are welcome by replying here or by emailing me at KONsports@yahoo.com.
