No, it's worse.

We've heard the cries of "WOLF!" before from enviornmentalists, predicting doom and depletion of our coveted natural resources - oil being chief among them. We've managed to keep pace with the United States' torrid consumption, but most people had failed to factor China into the mix.

A country with a full 1/6 of the worlds' population, China had been making serious waves the past decade with their explosive economic growth. Over the past two decades, China has averaged a growth in economy of 9.5%, an astounding number that far outpaces the growth of the United States which averages 3-4% on good years. Couple that factor with a population that is nearly quadruple our present levels, and it's no wonder oil prices have rocketed to record highs.

The Unites States is currently the leading consumer in oil, having been replaced by China as the leading consumer in grain, meat, steel, and coal. The United States is easily being surpassed by China in technology sales, computer ownership, and even fertilizer use.

"With steel, a key indicator of industrial development, use in China has soared and is now more than twice that of the United States: 258 million tons to 104 million tons in 2003."

"Looking at energy use in China means also considering coal, which supplies nearly two thirds of energy demand. Here China's burning of 800 million tons easily exceeds the 574 million tons burned in the United States. With its coal use far exceeding that of the United States and with its oil and natural gas use climbing fast, it is only a matter of time until China will also be the world's top emitter of carbon."

"In another key area, fertilizer -- essentially nitrates, phosphates, and potash -- China's use is double that of the United States, 39.8 million tons to 19.7 million tons in 2004."

So, in essence, the Chinese government despite being communist and initially believing that gross consumption and destruction of their own environmental resources were soley a capitalistic problem, are beginning to realize that this unchecked and unregulated growth has some serious side effects.

If China were to follow the same fossil-fuel "throw it away" path that the United States did, consumption of basic resources would fly through the roof. When a large group of people constituting nearly 15% of the population works their way up the economic ladder at such as blindingly fast pace, the reverberations are felt throughout the world.

It's high time China and the first world took stock of the methods and means we use to drive our economy.

"If the Chinese consume resources in 2031 as voraciously as Americans do now, their grain consumption would be two thirds of current world production and oil use of 99 million barrels a day would exceed current world output of 79 million barrels per day. In addition, China would consume more steel than the entire Western industrialized world does today and its meat consumption would be roughly four fifths of current world meat production."

Regardless of whether or not your believe the old addage that "Technology will eventually solve everything", warning signs have to be coming up in your mind right now. 2031 isn't some obscure date down the road in which we will be dead - but rather well within our lifetime during middle age, and at the time when our children will be growing up.

Oil is a finite resource which will run out one day - and probably sooner than we expect since the growth of the Chinese (not to mention India, Pakistan and Indonesia) will soon put a tremendous burden on the world as they strive towards what they see are our utopia: Fast big cars, strip malls, huge fancy houses, and generalized gluttony.

The simply matter is that there is not enough fossil fuels, farmland, lumber, or even fish to sustain this type of growth and the capitalisitic based mentality of economic growth before all else. What is going to happen in the third world and developing countries when they realize that they will never be able to obtain the materialism that we flaunt in their face on a daily basis?

Since China and the United States follow a path of borrowing from the world and future generations to ensure their growth, it is only a matter of years before even the third world is fully taxed from a resource standpoint. Since the Chinese have already deforested their land and caused widespread desertification, they have been importing hardwood trees from rainforests in Southeast Asia and New Guinea.

It's basically a process of "Destroy someone elses backyard instead of your own."

Well - what happens when there are no backyards left to pillage?

The time is already here in which we must begin to address these critical issues before we begin to see civil and social strife over the scarcity of world-wide resources. Isn't any warning being raised that we are beginning to show our need for more and more scarce resources with the allowed drilling of a once off-limits National Wildlife Reserve? Where does it end from there? What resource will our desperation make us exploit next?

We should be practicing restraint and ecological conservation as not to bankrupt the system from which we depend on. Maybe we shouldn't be telling everyone to strive for the American way of spending on credit, and out of control consumerism. Perhaps we should be striving towards a model of meeker and simpler living, as a beacon to the entire world of how humanity can live in harmony with the planet.

If the American Way is defined as the one in which the most consumption equals the most praise, then perhaps the American Way isn't the right way to live afterall.

Sources:
http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=7347
http://money.inq7.net/breakingnews/view_breakingnews.php?yyyy=2005&mon=03&dd=22&file=16
 
   

 


Comment Page: 1 2 3   [Next]
 
tootboy on
Re: It's not THAT bad. Just ask China!
This is perhaps a good thing for the world.  China's mass consumption will make some enterprising companies come up with energy alternatives. 

I think the "high" oil prices currently seen in the world is doing the same thing.  People will start using alternatives as long as there is a reasonable breaking point in terms of relative cost vs oil.

So China's consumption will actually lead to a better environment as people turn to alternatives.

instead of a doom and gloom scenario this article should be suggesting a happy ending.

champy on
Re: It's not THAT bad. Just ask China!
Perhaps - but you don't see our country or even the developing world making any strides yet in this area. We continue to exploit cheap unrenewable resources and go looking for more oil, instead of cutting our consumption, raising our fuel standards, or living more simply.

When does the change finally take place? Everyone always says - well, eventually we'll change - but I don't see the economic machine moving towards this area. All I see is companies entrenched in oil denying there is a problem and lobbying for continued gluttony so they can get rich.

I'm not a huge fan of unfettered economic processes somehow leading to a conclusion. Government intervention seems to be the only thing that has ever kept them honest.

rachie on
Re: It's not THAT bad. Just ask China!
you have raised some good points from tha article. really good reading that. like alot of your blogs it opens your eyes to the world of politics.
tootboy on
Re: It's not THAT bad. Just ask China!
Here's where I disagree with you.

You say, "We continue to exploit cheap unrenewable resources and go looking for more oil, instead of cutting our consumption, raising our fuel standards, or living more simply."

Back a few decades ago people were predicting that the world populatoin was growing so fast that we were gonna starve to death.  Instead, technology was created in which more food is produced with far less resources, and far cheaper.  We have so much food we are paying people not to produce it.

Living more simply, and cutting consumption would lead to a massive depression.  That doesn't work either.

the reason we don't find other resources besides oil is that oil is cheap.  If oil was scarce it would be very very expensive.  There is a breaking point in which people will switch to other fuels. 

example: there are hybrid cars out there.  Car companies would certainly make more if there was a huge market.  But the average person says to themselves , "why spend $10000 more when all I'm gonna save in gas is $5000?" (or whatever the real #s are). 

As gas prices go up (and they will if the demand in China keeps steady or goes up), the savings difference between a regular SUV and a hybrid SUV will decrease.  People will buy more hybrids.


As people pay more they will look for alternatives.  As the demand for alternatives go up the more likely that products that meet that demand will be offered and bought. 

So instead of our energy needs and uses going down, it will go up (just like our food intake).


Give people a reasonable reason to switch they will.  People will switch to electric cars if the value is the same as combustion engines. 

We use so much more energy than we did in the 1950s and yet the relative prices is better.  How is this possible if demand=supply?  Well the supply has gone up as we currently spend the energy better.


Government intervention will not help.  It never does.  It's the people that control the direction of companies not the government's or even the companies' wishes. 

hypnagogic on
Re: It's not THAT bad. Just ask China!
The real or perceived depletion of natural (and unnatural) resources will lead to tension, first national and then international.  This leads to war which is good for the economy.  Those who profit from the better economy will be able to afford to purchase what they will need for their lifetime and so why should they care about the rest of the world or its people? 

Technology will help some but pollution will negate its once-impressive benefits.  I wonder if Canada is at all concerned about its ability to hold on to its natural resources in the future?


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