
I think the "high" oil prices currently seen in the world is doing the same thing. People will start using alternatives as long as there is a reasonable breaking point in terms of relative cost vs oil.
So China's consumption will actually lead to a better environment as people turn to alternatives.
instead of a doom and gloom scenario this article should be suggesting a happy ending.
When does the change finally take place? Everyone always says - well, eventually we'll change - but I don't see the economic machine moving towards this area. All I see is companies entrenched in oil denying there is a problem and lobbying for continued gluttony so they can get rich.
I'm not a huge fan of unfettered economic processes somehow leading to a conclusion. Government intervention seems to be the only thing that has ever kept them honest.
You say, "We continue to exploit cheap unrenewable resources and go looking for more oil, instead of cutting our consumption, raising our fuel standards, or living more simply."
Back a few decades ago people were predicting that the world populatoin was growing so fast that we were gonna starve to death. Instead, technology was created in which more food is produced with far less resources, and far cheaper. We have so much food we are paying people not to produce it.
Living more simply, and cutting consumption would lead to a massive depression. That doesn't work either.
the reason we don't find other resources besides oil is that oil is cheap. If oil was scarce it would be very very expensive. There is a breaking point in which people will switch to other fuels.
example: there are hybrid cars out there. Car companies would certainly make more if there was a huge market. But the average person says to themselves , "why spend $10000 more when all I'm gonna save in gas is $5000?" (or whatever the real #s are).
As gas prices go up (and they will if the demand in China keeps steady or goes up), the savings difference between a regular SUV and a hybrid SUV will decrease. People will buy more hybrids.
As people pay more they will look for alternatives. As the demand for alternatives go up the more likely that products that meet that demand will be offered and bought.
So instead of our energy needs and uses going down, it will go up (just like our food intake).
Give people a reasonable reason to switch they will. People will switch to electric cars if the value is the same as combustion engines.
We use so much more energy than we did in the 1950s and yet the relative prices is better. How is this possible if demand=supply? Well the supply has gone up as we currently spend the energy better.
Government intervention will not help. It never does. It's the people that control the direction of companies not the government's or even the companies' wishes.
Technology will help some but pollution will negate its once-impressive benefits. I wonder if Canada is at all concerned about its ability to hold on to its natural resources in the future?
politics