Pennsylvania Primary

Today is the long awaited Pennsylvania democratic primary.

I think it is funny how Clinton (who wants to make any win seem big) and the media (who wants to cover the drama till the DNC) has portrayed it. Even though Obama has never been expected to do great in PA, and Clinton can't win big enough for it to matter later, this is THE big event according to the media.

When I estimated the outcome of the democratic primaries to May 20th (at which point I think no argument for Clinton staying in the race can be made), I believe I gave Clinton 95 of the 158 PA delegates (the others are superdelegates). This is probably more generous than most people have been, but I believe that she can pull that off in PA. It is pretty much everywhere else that I think she will fail to pull of a big win, and many of the remaining states she will "lose" to Obama.

Basically, today will once again decide nothing.

But it will be fun to watch.

UPDATE:

9:00pm

The first numbers are coming in, and Clinton is the projected winner. However, the margin is as of now much more narrow than I had predicted, and already they are saying that based on this, Hillary will probably go on.

I was looking over the numbers in Indiana and North Carolina, and I think that Obama is going to win more delegates there than I initially predicted as well, making this even more hopeless for Clinton. Combine that with her campaign being out of money... it isn't looking good. The question at this point is... will her win here get her more money?

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ubu13 on

Re: Pennsylvania Primary

Yeah, you can bet that I am going to be watching on and off today. My brother is working in the polls in Bucks County, outside Philadelphia. I'm from there originally, but now live in California (for 35 years). We Californians thought we were so smart when we opted for that early election, as usually we had no input into the primary elections. Damn, if we had held to our June 3rd usual time, we would have been a HUGE voice in this primary. Of course, this state went for Hillary, though Northern California pretty much went for Obama. At this stage though, I think more of the state would have gone for Obama. Anyway, it will be interesting. And yes, I agree, this is not going to solve anything.

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cas on

Re: Pennsylvania Primary

I can say without a doubt that Clinton is going to take PA. The main reason is because of what Obama said. It is the truth in what he said that lost his vote: PA doesn't like it. I know all the people he was talking about when he was referring to "small town PA" and they outnumber the people who see the truth in those words.

It's kind of ironic I guess. I mean, his words even made me not like him... and I feel ashamed because of it. I don't know who my vote will go to today. Or if I even will. I am still so very undecided.

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askjesse on

Re: Pennsylvania Primary

I'm pretty sure the bitter comment has little to do with why he will lose in PA. In fact, I think he is doing better there than before he made the comment oddly enough. Mostly because he was referring to people who are bitter and vote on issues like guns and religion... and those people are already supporting the Republican. I think it is unfortunate that Obama made the comment that he did because... it had the opposite effect it would have had if he had managed to say it correctly. Basically, from what I heard he was in the middle of describing the Democratic strategy to win back the people who have been taken in by the bait and switch issues of guns and abortion that the Repulicans have been using now for a number of years to gain votes, only to ignore those issues and those who voted for them.

Coming from WV, a state that is economically disadvantaged, I've often wondered why so many people would vote for the party that doesn't prioritize their social and economic well-being. Obama put into words what I have seen and heard on a local level. In 2004, I hung around with a group of very religious college students who were voting for Bush. Are they bitter? I don't think that is accurate. But they fit what he was trying to say. It bugged me to no end because they didn't care about any other issues other than pro-life vs. pro-choice... nothing that would directly effect them, like the economy and the war (directly related if you ask me...).

To me, I'm less insulted by the bitter comments that the hand shaking, baby kissing... and in Clinton's case.... royal crown drinking that goes on. haha.

I think you should vote. Go to that booth and just pick one. In the end, this is one of the few contributions we can make to how our government is run for the next 4 - 8 years.

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cas on

Re: Pennsylvania Primary

To be honest, both of my parents are registered Democrat, and they are now pushing Hillary on me. Neither one cling to religion, although my father is an avid hunter. The Obama quote is all anyone was talking about... including the Democrats. So I have to disagree with you on that one, being that I see it all happening.

I am registered Republican. My support was for Obama until that comment. Now I feel like I have nowhere to turn. My vote will probably still go to him because I don't like Hillary for president, and John McCain is a lost cause. I guess I took it personally. Again, just seeing how effected everyone around here was by it... it really makes a difference. At least the man is right about one thing: he can make changes. That's a plus.